Beware simplistic protectionism

My letter was published today in the AFR.

In "Vehement defence of populism" (Letters, July 6), David Havyatt points to a growing inequality amongst voters tired of waiting for trickle-down benefits and suggests business should reject neoliberal rhetoric if it wants to assist in much-needed reform to Australian politics.

Populism is being fuelled by politicians watering down their "social demand" responsibilities to provide basic services and employment opportunities as existed in the past during less prosperous but more stable times. The risk is if we continue down this track, we will see a return to simplistic protectionism solutions that are gathering pace abroad.

Unless governments, in consultation with business, provide a much-needed boost to confidence with an industry-by-industry plan supported by policy measures, the angst against incumbent political parties is set to continue. Trade agreements, for instance, can enhance national outcomes, so long as any fallout from misplaced workers is matched with funded retraining opportunities. Otherwise you risk undermining confidence to the extent the benefits may fail to materialise.

But, to have a comprehensive industry policy across all major industries will require a bipartisan political approach, as suggested recently by former Reserve Bank governor Warwick McKibbin. There is nothing innovative or exciting about losing one's livelihood or having to accept substantially lower working conditions or services whilst observing a growing level of inequality.  

Brexit according to a technicrat

According to All Tech considered if you judge a country's interests only by prevalent Google searches, it was after the polls closed when British voters started to think seriously about the implications of their choice.
Of course this headline is somewhat tongue in cheek. But I do think there was a paucity of objective debate with a propensity instead to gravitate to the more extreme views on both sides of the fence. As they say never let the facts get in the way of good story.
Another view according to a leading economist is few people were really concerned about the EU (especially in view of the fact England was never part of the Euro currency) until some of the Tories started to blame everything on the EU and stirred up the anti establishment movement which is gaining traction globally. Tribalism reaches across all social classes, evident in the upper levels of the legal fraternity fearing legal business was migrating to EU courts. Of course one would be a fool to ignore a growing frustration amongst voters but all too often we see a gravitation to attribute blame to an external party when problems need to be sheeted home to the government in the first instance.

Central banks, including the EU, would not need to have such loose monetary policy given better management of their respective economies by their politicians. So its easy to form uninformed conspiracy theories when politicians have abrogated their "social  demand"  responsibilities (by social demand I mean governance in terms of full employment and provision of services etc etc )to the extent reasonable social demands are not being met. This has been a growing trend and differs to the degree "social demand" was taken far more seriously in the immediate post war period of almost full employment when we were less prosperous in aggregate than now but there was less inequality. But doubtless to say there will be many opinions from both sides of the divide with some claiming the exit frees England of the influence of a right wing EU.
But the opinion I would countenance is it was a non event until such time as it become a furious party debate and Cameron wanted to end the animosity but subsequently misjudged the outcome. Interestingly enough what this also reveals I think is a growing number of young people are not so inclined to tribalism as the old brigade which gives me a sense of optimism about the future.   

Brexit an emotional decision

It appears to me the decision was largely an emotive one with about 75% of younger voters in favour of staying. That tells me the younger generation intuitively are not nearly as hung up over issues such as migration and refugee intakes which I believe drove the exit vote amongst older voters to tip the scales in favour of an exit. But, any reduced employment and investment opportunities arising by this  move may not be as material as is envisaged unless there is retribution from EU member states (which seems most unlikely) or there is severe contagion from others such as France, Italy, Spain or Greece lining up to opt out. That potentially could cause credit markets to seize up and bring on global recessionary fears.

Although some feel the move will trigger Scotland and Northern Ireland to leave the UK I don't think this is likely as less drastic options are available. It has been reported already both Gibraltar and Scotland, which both gave resounding votes   to stay might maintain the UK's membership of the bloc. Northern Ireland could also be included in such discussions.    

Rather, I think over time, the existing status quo might be engineered with new trade deals given a modicum of goodwill. That reverts back to my original hypothesis the no vote was really all about increased sovereignty and a backlash against the more accommodative EU provisions on migration and refugees.  

Governments do have a say of course, but the reality is customers and suppliers largely make markets and determine outcomes much more so than is generally realized and market fears are about what might happen, not what are the more likely outcomes. Businesses will seek to continue to do business where it is in their best interest and as changes will take many years, new deals will be made.  

But, how long markets will remain skittish with a marked move to bonds and cash rather than equities is anyone’s guess, but, I think the position is nowhere near as dire as early market losses might otherwise suggest. What is often overlooked is the loss to huge numbers of average people who own shares through their retirement funds only to see those investments tank.

In summary, it appears, the exit votes were largely based on a desire to return to sovereign control. In the process England has effectively turned back the clock on the cooperation and open door vision which was widely applauded at the time of the EU’ s inception.

  

Tech puzzle

In funny happening to our tech revolution “(AFR 6^th June 2016) Nouriel Roubini concludes we don’t really know for sure what is driving the puzzle of anemic growth in productivity despite living in the so called golden age of technology and innovation.

But, Roubini overlooks the increasing levels of re-work surreptitiously invading every level of our complex life to risk us becoming slaves to technology rather than its master. Hidden is the additional time spent on –line adapting to unexplained new formats or discovering bugs or unexpected outcomes.  Solutions are provided by the growing on line forums, encouraged by technology providers who underinvest in adequate support in the first instance.

One can routinely expect outages on phones or the internet which sometimes last days and amount to wasted time until a solution is finally provided which might have been avoided with adequate back or more experienced call center staff.  In an increasing complex world much more testing is required before new products or services are released when the reverse is happening. Consumers and businesses increasingly are the “guinea pigs”, forced to waste precious time identifying faults or bugs which should have sorted out beforehand. This is rather obviously more economical to the suppliers but bad for productivity Additionally when things fail electronically we upgrade only to find many applications now aren’t compatible so the pattern of re -work continues.

Another aspect often overlooked is that the pace of change in terms of new ground breaking discoveries in our modern economies has slowed to crawl compared to that which occurred in the last few centuries. What has increased exponentially instead is the amount of information available and the ease by which this is communicated on the internet with the aid of advanced communicative devices.  One might argue however we are at risk of a “dumbing down” of society as devices are now programmed to routinely tell us what to do and attend to day to day chores without needing to pay attention to the elements or figure out commonsense solutions of our own accord.     On a broader scale the long term economic effects of the tech revolution on employment remain widely debated. In the past major new scientific discoveries impacted positively on just about every level of employment and on our overall well-being albeit there was some severe dislocations as the old gave way to the new.

But the tech sector only accounts for about 10% of GDP in advanced economies and applications to improve outcomes in the larger service sectors such as in health and education have proven to be meagre. This is possibility one important factor as to why we going to be stuck in a period of very low growth in what is described as a golden era of new technology and innovation.  We are told we are living in rapid era of change. But a lot of that change is having to repeat tasks because they were programmed incorrectly in the first place. Maybe we could move back to an old fashioned innovation to “get it done right the first time’’- which would be a new innovation for the burgeoning tech sector.  

A Brighter future

In April we holidayed in the tiny community of Tawonga South nestled close to the Kiewa River and just a few minutes’ drive to the township of Mt Beauty. Mt Beauty is within a comfortable 4 hours’ drive from Melbourne and situated in Victoria's high country. The location of Tawonga South where we stayed is at the southern end of the Kiewa Valley at the foot of Mount Bogong which is the state's highest mountain. For those more adventuresome in the summer months there are horse riding treks with pack horses to traverse the mountain forests and alpine woodlands. 

Mt Beauty is aptly named as it is a place of abundant natural beauty which my pictures do not do justice. The landscape is predominantly one of mixed farming which gives way to the surrounding Alpine National Park punctuated by lakes, forests and snowfields.

The township dates to the 1940’s when work began on the Kiewa Hydro-Electric Scheme but the construction of a large dam and power station did not proceed as other priorities took precedence. However in 2001 as the state encountered power shortages the project was re-considered, but the new proposal constructed a tunnel rather than a dam, as originally envisaged and located the power station underground.

Bogong power station was commissioned in 2009 and currently provides 140MW of ultra-fast power during peak demands whilst eliminating 88,000t of greenhouse gas emissions a year. The power station, operated by the publically listed Australian Company AGL, does not interfere in any way with tourism and the recreational benefits to the region. Reference   http://www.power-technology.com/projects/bogong-station/

The purpose of the holiday was also to join our walking group friends and although we did not participate in any of the walks we enjoyed their company in the evenings. Over dinner it was always interesting to hear about their experiences such as an encountering a team of pack horses and to learn about the many historic sites they observed and took photos of along the way. A highlight was a visit to the Bogong Estate winery where in the evening we all enjoyed delicious fresh Pizza's baked in the estate' s outdoor Pizza oven. We were also treated to a fine drop of " Pinot Noir" courtesy of one of the walking group's nephew  who owns the vineyard. 

Mt Beauty proved to be an ideal spot, not only for its attractions but as it was relatively close to other centres such as the township of Bright. We visited Bright on a number of occasions which was resplendent in autumn colours reflected in the Ovens River which winds it ways through the town. The is plenty to explore in the nearby forests, to visit their boutique wineries or to simply enjoy, as we did, the local produce and township cafes.

On our trip up from Melbourne nearing Mt Beauty we were greeted by a disconcerting smoke haze caused by a planned “burn” in preparedness to reduce fuel and ensure improved fire trail access prior to summer’s bush fire threat. It was a minor inconvenience and during our stay it began to clear. 

It was a reminder of the devastation caused in February 2009 when a catastrophic wildfire engulfed the State Forest and surrounding districts.  The tragedy claimed not only human life but the livelihood and livestock of many as more than 33,000 hectares were destroyed. Such was the ferocity of the blaze that even some of the very old trees, who had withstood many prior bushfires, dropped their limbs and died. What tales of life could they convey or words of wisdom impart?  

But, it seems the local communities have responded very well to the crisis and are united in adapting to a brighter future- in the same enterprising manner as the early settlers eventually adapted to the reality of much harsher conditions compared to their homeland. The area was first discovered by the expeditions in 1824 (Hume & Hovell) and then further exploration of the region was undertaken by Charles Stuart (1848) after which large scale sheep and cattle runs with lots of up to 50,000 acres were established. But the relative wealth and prosperity of the early pastoralists was short lived as they were soon subject to the ravages of a severe drought and bushfires – a feature of the Australian landscape that prevailed for thousands of years prior to colonisation.

But in the 1850’s after the discovery of gold, like many country areas of Victoria, the district subsequently prospered from increased wealth and migration. By way of example by the 1900’s Melbourne was the most open cosmopolitan city in the world with 40% of its population born abroad. The mixed fortunes of the region over the ensuing period to modernity were enhanced by the preparedness of farmers and communities to better understand the landscape with affiliation to such groups as “Land Care”. But the ferocity of the 2009 bushfire and its destruction galvanised the community and authorities into renewed restoration objectives and affirmative action.   

Subsequently a “Community Landscape Project” was formed from an allocation of funds raised by the Bushfire relief appeal at the time to help with the restoration of the land and ensure the original heritage trees are retained in conjunction with additional plantings to improve biodiversity.

Funding additionally covered the publication of the historical journey entitled “a farming journey: an account of the development of eleven farming districts in North East Victoria for the region’.” The action plan linked the natural environment to practical farming to achieve sustainable environmental outcomes. I purchased this excellent publication and found it interesting reading with many photos of the early pioneers of the region.     

Details of recent plantings of deciduous and native trees across the fire affected communities and the work undertaken can be ascertained from the website reference below. Once in the website scroll down for details and pictures of locals engaged in plantings and restoration work.  

https://intoourhandsfoundation.com/other-vbaf-funded-projects/landscape-project/

During our stay we also visited the nearby historic township of Yackandandah whose settlement arose to support the goldfields of 1852. It is a delightful small town with quaint shops. It was a hive of activity when we visited. The town like many in the area, is now attracting many more folk who introduce new skills in contrast to the earlier rural bias. But strict planning and regulation have skilfully maintained the old world feel whilst ushering in the new – so that none of the old charm and history is lost,

The region gives grounds for cautious optimism and the likelihood of a brighter future.  Andrew Cross

   

I'm Dreaming of Home (Hymne des Fraternises) - Joyeaux Noel soundtrack

Readers are probably familiar with the story of over 100 years ago when British, Belgian and French soldiers laid down rifles, to step out of their wretched trenches and spend Christmas mingling with Germans along the Western front.

Pope Benedict XV had called on authorities some months earlier for a Christmas truce which was rejected, but nevertheless it seems a spirit of Christmas arose effortlessly to sweep over the trenches. Initially it was thought to have begun from an exchange of carols with Germans joining in with the Latin words for ‘O Come, All Ye Faithful’ which was well known to both sides.

The event remains etched in the war diaries as a testament of hope that humanity can emerge even from the darkest hours of history. The Open Doors Diamond valley Choir enjoy singing this beautiful song about a longing to be home by the battle weary troops from the film about the event.

Hanging on a string - the multiverse theory of other universes

The multiverse theory of other universes poses some interesting questions about the nature of reality. Of course it is only a theory that provides an explanation on the idea of eternal occurrence and the duality principle of quantum mechanics by suggesting other dimensions. If the theory turns out to be correct than we must have identical twins out there in the other universes in the different dimensions- the so called multiverses.

Homeward Bound BYU Choir

Another beautiful song The Open Door Choir enjoy singing

RAAF Glee Singers Recording

This is a recording of the RAAF Glee Singers Australia Day concert in London January 1943, which includes my late father shown in the portrait below located third from the right. The concert apparently was received with great enthusiasm as was the many recordings the group performed for the BBC when serving in England as part of the RAAF offensive.

The Group portrait below is of the eight RAAF Glee Party members. Identified from left to right: pianist 416307 Pilot Officer (PO) Hamilton Roland Dacre Budd (pilot) from Broken Hill, NSW (died 1 August 1943 on operations over the Atlantic Ocean); 413150 PO Frank Sutton Walker (observer) from Wellington, NSW; Squadron Leader (Sqn Ldr) Harry Clifford Thrush (chaplain) from Adelaide, South Australia; Sqn Ldr Gordon Gladstone Wood (chaplain) from Wellington, NSW who conducted the choir (died 18 June 1944 in UK); 412396 Sergeant (Sgt) Charles Keith Byrnes (pilot) from Moree, NSW; 401317 Sgt George Claud Notman (observer) from Skipton, Victoria; 408511 PO Donald Zalva Pile (pilot) from Melbourne, Victoria (died 26 October 1943 in Scotland); and 409597 PO Leslie Walter Roper (pilot) from Melbourne (died 4 September 1943 on operations over Germany).

A playlist of 6 songs is below. Enjoy:  

A short story

My wife is a writer and I have managed to persuade her to allow me to publish one of her short stories, about our adventure holiday.

Its Entitled Odyssey

It’s midday in late July and I’m huddled in a large fishing dinghy on the Pacific Ocean. The equatorial sun attempts to penetrate the swaddling of this mummy-like figure clinging to the wooden rim of the boat. What am I doing here, I wonder, as I drink greedily from my water bottle? I could be lounging lazily in Melbourne beside a cosy fire, sipping hot chocolate.

My friend, Barbara, sitting up on the side of this craft, soaking up the experience, knows why she is here. My husband, Lindsay, perched further forward on the opposite side, unconcerned about the sun’s perforating rays, knows what he is doing here. They are responding to an invitation to visit Abaiang, a small coral island, part of Kiribati (KIR-UH-BAHS) (formerly the Gilbert Islands).

“Come and visit my island; you will see the most amazing sunsets,” Judy, a 27 year old Canadian missionary, offered to Barbara some months earlier.

Barbara has come because she has visited Kiribati before, and feels the need to return, perhaps to commit to some volunteer work later. Lindsay wished to accompany a friend, to experience something new, and I am, somewhat reluctantly, accompanying partner and friend.

“Look, dolphins,” calls Lindsay over the whirr of the outboard motor.

I struggle to make myself a little more comfortable on my luggage seat, at the same time following Lindsay’s gaze. Two grey forms leap gracefully from the cobalt sea ahead then disappear, like children playing hide and seek, into the inky depths. I’m mesmerised, waiting enthusiastically for their next display.

The ocean is relatively calm, dispelling my fear of huge swells, sea sickness, and most of all, the possibility of capsizing. I did read in Arthur Grimble’s, “A Pattern of Islands,” that the south-east trades breathe steadily at 25 miles an hour for months on end, but can slam round to the north and blow a 40 mile gale. I wonder if our two boatmen are expecting heavy weather? They’re wearing hard hats for some reason, and we can’t ask them why as their English is limited. We can but speculate! Perhaps there are large flying fish in the waters. Maybe they were a gift, or left over from a building site job some time. The latter seems unlikely, though, as there was little evidence of large building works at Basio, the port of Tarawa, from where we had cast off only an hour ago. There were, however, remains of industrious activity from the Second World War. The Japanese invaded Tarawa, building a landing strip, road and later cement bunkers to defend the island from the American rescuers. The beach, where once one of the largest and bloodiest battles of the Pacific was fought, is now covered with cramped village housing and the bunkers have become the children’s climbing equipment. Oh, there is really nothing to worry about, as we are still in sight of land: Tarawa, a slate silhouette on the horizon behind us, and Abaiang appearing ahead like a mirage, through the sun’s metallic rays.
I hope my water lasts. Of course it will. Only an hour to go and the temperature is unlikely to change much. The internet printout states that the temperature here varies little between 26 and 32 degrees Celsius all year round and I’m sure it’s reached the maximum. Wouldn’t it be pleasant if we could slip over the side to cool off. On second thought I don’t think I would like to risk the wrath of the tiger sharks (Tababa) said to hunt for trevally in these waters. Legend has it that if you stay still in the sea the Tababa will charge you. If you swim away from them in fear they will smell your fear and chase you. If you swim without fear towards them they will be afraid and leave you in peace. Still, this is not the time or place to prove myth or fact.

“Coming, ready or not.”

Where are those cheeky dolphins? I want to take a photo. Oh, good, there they are, so sleek and graceful. I wonder if they are marine guardian angels guiding us from island to island. That is a comforting thought. Is the sun addling my brain?

“What an amazing sight,” Barbara comments, wrenching me from my reverie.
“Yes, that is incredible. It looks like a house boat.”
“ Fam-ly fish,” responds one of our smiling boatmen.
The family doesn’t appear to be doing much fishing at the moment. I wouldn’t mind changing places with them. They seem very comfortable sitting cross-legged on that flat wooden roof beneath the shade of a tarpaulin, which, like a misplaced sail is tied loosely between the side of the vessel and two poles fastened to the deck. I imagine they are enjoying the gentle breeze generated by the propulsion of the craft through the sultry salty air.

Still, like us, they have little room to move around. Two thirds of the roof is covered with rolls of hand woven pandanus leaf mats which the native women weave to sell in the Tarawa market places. All their worldly possessions are stacked haphazardly on the lower deck. I wonder if those splashed of colour filtering through the open sided structure are sarongs drying in the heat.

Heat! Was it only two days ago I stepped from the plane to a burst of hot air which momentarily stopped me in my tracks? I should have expected it, as we are, after all, two degrees above the equator. The stifling, corrugated iron airport building was a far cry from the modern Tullamarine air terminal. Our luggage had been piled in the far corner, on a cement floor, among dozens of those striped plastic carry-all bags which the I-Kirabiti passengers used as luggage. Various packages and boxes full of purchases from Australia littered the unloading bay entrance, slowing our customs clearance. It was 10:00am and 28 degrees in the shade, and I was anxious for a cold shower and a change of clothes.

A pale hand beckoned like a beacon above a sea of dark faces, guiding us through the crowd. A handsome young man, hair tied loosely behind his neck, moved leisurely towards us , smiling lazily. Gently he placed a brightly-coloured, delicately-woven garland of tiny blossoms on our heads, evoking memories of frangipani, daisy chains and a carefree childhood. Introductions followed this unexpected moving gesture. Then John, Barbara’s Australian Volunteers Abroad friend, announced,
“Your plane to Abaiang is grounded due to mechanical problems. But, I have managed to get some local fishermen to run you over.”

So here I am , slowly cooking to a lobster red but fascinated by the changing colours of the waters beneath. Azure, like the cloudless sky above, and now aqua marine as we glide closer to our island destination. Not far to go now. That line of palm trees, rising sentry-like from the horizon, must be concealing the mission buildings and our expectant host. Can’t see a wharf anywhere. Neither can our fishermen apparently, as one has been scouring the shore line with binoculars for the past half hour. Hope we are not lost. Can’t see any sign-posts or markers. Those natives snorkelling over there might point us in the right direction as there seems to be a great deal of calling and gesticulating.

Is that a cross ahead on the beach? Yes! We’re here at last. But where’s the wharf? I should have realised this is not your everyday tropical paradise but an equatorial outpost. Beautiful, peaceful and pristine, yes, but remote, nonetheless. If my friends could only see me now, stumbling knee deep through the lagoon shallows, water-bottle and camera held high. The fine coral bed gripping my ankles like shallow quick-sand is making progress extremely difficult. Barbara’s suggestion to wear water resistant shoes was sound advice. Our fishermen, now loaded down with backpacks and boxes of groceries, seem quite at home with this aquatic landing.

What a strange sight we must seem to those striking-looking students observing our sluggish arrival. Their smiles radiating from cocoa coloured features are beacons to this broiled flotsam.

“How did you get here?” called a pretty,freckled-faced red head joyously. “The plane was cancelled!”

“John arranged a lift with some local fishermen. We couldn’t miss your promised sunset,” Barbara replied.

“Come in, freshen up,and meet my house mates, then we will walk down to the lagoon and watch the show.”

At last we’re here, rested and expectant, beneath the lanky coconut trees clustered along the foreshore. The offshore breeze, caressing our faces and playing tag with the palms, heralds the reposing sun. Magenta, crimson, orange and lavender downy clouds fashion its bedding. I am not disappointed. My reluctance fades with the sunset. The journey to this land of endless summer is worth the taking. Once in a lifetime one should step out of life’s rut and experience something different. This is my season.