Recently the Open Door Singers Diamond Valley choir held its inaugural performance to a packed and enthusiastic house. Entry was by way of a gold coin donation and the proceeds were donated to the charity CAVE, who support young people in their reading and writing skills. Here are a few videos my daughter recorded on her iPhone.
Highly instrumental in getting the best in joyous musical expression was the leadership provided by the accomplished singer and acclaimed choral conductor Shaun Islip whose enthusiasm is highly contagious.
Shaun is the Musical Director of the not for profit organisation "Open Door Singers" which aims to foster and grow community choirs and is ably supported by his highly competent and lovely wife.
Tuesday, October 6
Friday, September 11
Celine Dion & Josh Groban Live "The Prayer" (HD 720p)
This is another song we are learning with the newly formed Open Door Singers Diamond Valley choir and I think both the lyrics and music are inspiring, just as is the story of Josh Groban.
He first performed with Dion as only a 17 year old nervous last minute ''stand in" as you will hear on the video. The rest is history.
Thursday, September 3
Looking after those precious frontal lobes.
If you asked someone how well they are
looking after their precious frontal brain lobes you’re likely to get a rather quizzical
look and at best maybe a reference to stimulatory activity they undertake to
keep the brain exercised. Yet from early childhood it is important we don’t
take these fragile regions for granted, because they can easily break down once
exposed to trauma or put under undue pressure.
But even in the absence of a prior recognisable trauma an unhealthy build-up in fear can also precipitate many negative outcomes.
Our precious frontal lodes came to us
very late in the evolutionary cycle and are thought to be the additional
dimension that gave us the capacity for a richer more advanced state of
consciousness. Of course consciousness itself is a rather slippery concept and
no one is quite sure precisely how the brain’s integrated circuitry brings all
of this to fruition in the frontal lobes region. However the crucial nature of
this fragile brain area becomes evident since it is the focal point to our
existence and where we formulate judgments and have the capacity to ponder
abstract concepts or come up with rich creative ideas. The downside is any
damage to the lobes or undue stress can trigger an inability to function
rationally with the risk of ensuing tragic outcomes.
Elkhonon
Goldberg, PhD an author and Professor of Neurology pointed out in a study of a
large number of unpremeditated homicides, that all of those involved, without a
single exception, were found to have evidence of prior damage to the frontal
lobes. The study demonstrated that although such a group in normal type situations
were clearly able to distinguish right from wrong, once they became involved or
subjected to any highly pressured event they revert to lower level instinctive modes
of behaviours. This poses tragic consequences for themselves and their victims,
in the absence of cognitive strategies as compensatory measures.
It also imposes intriguing questions about the very nature of good and evil and when one can become temporarily insane.
It also imposes intriguing questions about the very nature of good and evil and when one can become temporarily insane.
But even in the absence of a prior recognisable trauma an unhealthy build-up in fear can also precipitate many negative outcomes.
Edward Hallowell -psychiatrist –in an
Article from Harvard Business Review -re published in the Work Space area of
the Financial Review summed up the position as follows:
"As a specialist in learning disabilities, I have found that most dangerous disability is not any formally diagnosable condition like dyslexia or ADD (attention deficit disorder). Its fear. When the frontal lobes approach capacity and we begin to fear that we can't keep up, 'the relationship between their higher and lower regions of the brain take an ominous turn. In survival mode, the deep areas of the brain assume control and began to direct the higher regions.
As a result the whole brain gets caught in a neurological Catch 22. The deep regions interpret the messages of overload they receive from the frontal lobes in the same way they interpret everything. They furiously fire signals of fear, anxiety, impatience, irritability anger or panic. In a futile attempt to do more than is possible, the brain paradoxically reduces its ability to think clearly."
"As a specialist in learning disabilities, I have found that most dangerous disability is not any formally diagnosable condition like dyslexia or ADD (attention deficit disorder). Its fear. When the frontal lobes approach capacity and we begin to fear that we can't keep up, 'the relationship between their higher and lower regions of the brain take an ominous turn. In survival mode, the deep areas of the brain assume control and began to direct the higher regions.
As a result the whole brain gets caught in a neurological Catch 22. The deep regions interpret the messages of overload they receive from the frontal lobes in the same way they interpret everything. They furiously fire signals of fear, anxiety, impatience, irritability anger or panic. In a futile attempt to do more than is possible, the brain paradoxically reduces its ability to think clearly."
In everyday
life a temporary loss of control through fear can happen much easier than we
can imagine. Examples abound of people, subject to intense pressure, “blowing
up” so to speak, evident in their childish outbursts where they revert to highly
simplistic communications.
Road rage is
a good example of where a pent up fear and rage can spill over to a driver behind
the wheel of car reacting irrationally in a fit of rage.
Fortunately
there are many simple things we can all do to ovoid overload, apart from combatting
the more serious maladies beyond the scope of this paper. What I always found
helpful is to plan ahead, leaving some generous time allotted for unexpected
events. Simply put, to allow time for contingencies. But what is even more important
is to avoid becoming "fearful" of failing to meet deadlines. When unforeseen
obstacles arise it is always better to negotiate a postponement than to continue
on and allow anxiety of fear to take its grip.
I also always found it extremely helpful to take time out for contemplation,
and to remind oneself there is always plenty of time to do what is really
important and not to accommodate unrealistic demands. My view is this
propensity to make unreasonable demands and to fail to allow for contingencies remains
the continuing scourges of modernity.
Hence, I think many of the problems
that beset us in modernity is not so much the rapid deployment of technology or
added complexity but the unrealistic demands we impose on one another. Rather
we fail to allow time to take care of our minds, to ensure adequate rest, to ensure
there are sensible time allowed for relaxation, for nutrition and to avoid
excessive pressure, often exerted by others with no idea of how much work is
involved.
I think what is at risk in the
roll-out of the digital transformation is the necessary human interactions to ensure
sufficient time to incorporate safeguards and reliability. Today the scope for
change is accelerating, but the question is are we advancing at such a rate of
knots that we will become compromised to the extent we risk becoming
overwhelmed. The risk is our already overtaxed brains fail to cope with the avalanche
of information and the unrelenting demands made on us.
Another aspect that is overlooked as
we move to a more robotic based existence is the reduction in the face to face
communication and the consequences of this for our overall state of wellbeing.
When you are talking to someone in a relaxed manner, your brain begins to buzz,
releasing pleasurable feelings similar to endorphins when you exercise. Counsellors
understand this principle as the very first objective is always to attempt to
get a person to calm down since there is no point in attempting to reason
rationally with someone who is in an extreme emotional state. This of course is
not always possible or practical in attempting to deal with someone in a drug
induced state or who is severely traumatised or enraged. But it helps us better
understand when to intervene and the best course of action to take in our
responses.
I have always noticed, when making
presentations the considerable advantages in talking to people in an
interactive mode, how you always feel better than addressing large groups of
people when you are in "remote" mode. When giving presentations I had
wondered why that was the case, but I now understand it was more a matter the interactive
format ensured the responsive bond meant we were all receiving reciprocal pleasurable
stimuli, that made us feel appreciative afterwards.
But nowhere is this more important than
in early learning. Youthful minds need plenty of sleep and nutrition and to
feel good about themselves before they are able to concentrate and advance in
early learning. The problems in the classroom of disruptive and unruly children
can usually be traced back to them feeling unsafe or angry. It’s probably more important
to help teach young students how to deal with their anger than it is to read
and write and some schools are beginning to understand this with miraculous
results. What was reported in relation to one school was the idea of showing
students simple pictures of happy and sad or angry people and asking them which
one applied to them.
The end result after teachers were
able to spend some time discussing different problems was an immense improvement
in outcomes. By way of example incidents in the playground of 30 -4o altercations
per month subsequently reduced to zero.
There is no doubt humans have the
marvellous capacity to be innovative and make new discoveries including a rethink
of where we go from here, but time will tell.
Monday, August 31
Shosholoza
Shosholoza is a
song the soon to be formed Open Door Singers Diamond Valley choir is currently learning. It has its origins as an Ndebele
folk song from Zimbabwe and has become so popular in South African culture that
it has been adopted as South Africa's second national anthem.
The lyrics came
from the heartache of working in the mines for encouragement as a sign of
solidarity. The hidden meaning was to support the struggle against oppression
and possibly represents a cry for the beloved country in the hills far away.
The are many different lyrics
but here is a sample with an approximate translation:
Go forward
Go forward
from those mountains
on this train from South
Africa
Go forward
Go forward
You are running away
You are running away
From those mountains
On this train from South
Africa
Sunday, August 16
What is it you believe but can’t prove ?
From
an early age I developed the idea of the importance of good works and that
simply believing in the “Christ” was insufficient if one was to attempt to encapsulate
the spirit of what was meant in the age old message. I have since realized that
such an assertion may also be somewhat simplistic, since stories have symbolic
lessons which are not always clear to us today. However it still remains true
to my belief to day.
Here are a few responses from different people. Which one resonates with you?
Jared Diamond –Evolutionary biologist and professor of geography at UCLA, author and Pulitzer Prize winner with extensive field experience in North America, South America, Africa, Asia , Australia and New Guinea.
When did humans complete their expansion around the world? I ‘m convinced , but can’t yet prove, that humans first reached the continents of North America, South Americas, and Australia only very recently-during or near the end of the last Ice Age. Specifically I’m convinced they reached North America around 14,000 years ago, South America around 13,500 years ago and Australia and New Guinea around 46,000 years ago. And that within a few centuries of those dates humans were responsible for the extinction of most of the big animals of those continents.
Anton Zeilinger. Professor of physics at the University of Vienna.
Once you adopt the notion that reality and information are rather the same, all quantum paradoxes and puzzles like Schrödinger’s cat disappear. Note the price of reconciliation is high. If my hypothesis is true, many questions become meaningless. There is no sense asking what is going on out there. Schrödinger’s cat is neither dead nor alive unless we obtain information about its state. By the way, I also believe that the day will come when we learn to overcome “de coherence” and to observe quantum phenomenon outside the shielded environment of Labourites. I hope that (unlike the unexamined cat) I will be alive when this happens.
Carolyn Porco-Planetary scientist.
We may soon discover life-forms under the ice on some moon orbiting Jupiter or Saturn or decide the intelligible signals of an advanced, unreachable distant alien civilisation.
J Craig Ventor –Visionary Genomic Researcher. Our human centric view of life is clearly unwarranted. From the millions of genes we are continually discovering in all our organisms, we learn that a finite number of genes appear over and over again and could easily have evolved from a few microbes arriving in a meteor or in intergalactic dust.
Leon lederman -Nobel Prize Winer in Physics 1988.
To believe something while knowing that it cannot be proved (yet) is the essence of physics. Guys like Einstein, Dirac, Poncare, extolled the beauty of concepts, in a bizarre sense placing truth at a lower level of importance.
Maria Spiropula -Experimental physicist.
I believe nothing to be true if it cannot be proved.
My hunch (and my wish) is that in the laboratory we will be able to segment space-time so finely that gravity will be studied and understood in a confined environment –and that gravitational particle physics will become recognised field.
David G Myers-Professor of psychology at Hope College, in Michigan
The mix of faith based humility and scepticism helped fuel the beginning of modern science and it has informed my own research and writing. The whole truth cannot be found merely by searching our minds, for there is not enough there. So we must put our ideas to the test. If they survive, so much the better for them; if not. So much the worse.
Jonathan Haidt Associate professor in the department of psychology at the University of Virginia.
If psychologists took religious experience seriously and tried to understand it from the inside, as anthropologists did in studying other cultures, I believe it would enrich our science. I have found religious texts and testimonials about purity and pollution essential for understanding the emotion of disgust and for helping me to see the breadth of moral concerns beyond harm, rights and justice.
David Buss Professor in the Psychology Department of the University Of Texas at Austin.
I believe in true love. The road of ordinary love are well travelled and their markers are well understood- the mesmerizing attraction, the ideational obsession, the sexual afterglow, the often profound self-sacrifice, the desire to combine DNA. But true love takes its own course, through unchartered territory. It knows no fences, has no barriers or boundaries. It’d difficult to define. Eludes modern measurement, seems scientifically woolly. But I know true love exists. I just can’t prove it.
Here are a few responses from different people. Which one resonates with you?
Jared Diamond –Evolutionary biologist and professor of geography at UCLA, author and Pulitzer Prize winner with extensive field experience in North America, South America, Africa, Asia , Australia and New Guinea.
When did humans complete their expansion around the world? I ‘m convinced , but can’t yet prove, that humans first reached the continents of North America, South Americas, and Australia only very recently-during or near the end of the last Ice Age. Specifically I’m convinced they reached North America around 14,000 years ago, South America around 13,500 years ago and Australia and New Guinea around 46,000 years ago. And that within a few centuries of those dates humans were responsible for the extinction of most of the big animals of those continents.
Anton Zeilinger. Professor of physics at the University of Vienna.
Once you adopt the notion that reality and information are rather the same, all quantum paradoxes and puzzles like Schrödinger’s cat disappear. Note the price of reconciliation is high. If my hypothesis is true, many questions become meaningless. There is no sense asking what is going on out there. Schrödinger’s cat is neither dead nor alive unless we obtain information about its state. By the way, I also believe that the day will come when we learn to overcome “de coherence” and to observe quantum phenomenon outside the shielded environment of Labourites. I hope that (unlike the unexamined cat) I will be alive when this happens.
Carolyn Porco-Planetary scientist.
We may soon discover life-forms under the ice on some moon orbiting Jupiter or Saturn or decide the intelligible signals of an advanced, unreachable distant alien civilisation.
J Craig Ventor –Visionary Genomic Researcher. Our human centric view of life is clearly unwarranted. From the millions of genes we are continually discovering in all our organisms, we learn that a finite number of genes appear over and over again and could easily have evolved from a few microbes arriving in a meteor or in intergalactic dust.
Leon lederman -Nobel Prize Winer in Physics 1988.
To believe something while knowing that it cannot be proved (yet) is the essence of physics. Guys like Einstein, Dirac, Poncare, extolled the beauty of concepts, in a bizarre sense placing truth at a lower level of importance.
Maria Spiropula -Experimental physicist.
I believe nothing to be true if it cannot be proved.
My hunch (and my wish) is that in the laboratory we will be able to segment space-time so finely that gravity will be studied and understood in a confined environment –and that gravitational particle physics will become recognised field.
David G Myers-Professor of psychology at Hope College, in Michigan
The mix of faith based humility and scepticism helped fuel the beginning of modern science and it has informed my own research and writing. The whole truth cannot be found merely by searching our minds, for there is not enough there. So we must put our ideas to the test. If they survive, so much the better for them; if not. So much the worse.
Jonathan Haidt Associate professor in the department of psychology at the University of Virginia.
If psychologists took religious experience seriously and tried to understand it from the inside, as anthropologists did in studying other cultures, I believe it would enrich our science. I have found religious texts and testimonials about purity and pollution essential for understanding the emotion of disgust and for helping me to see the breadth of moral concerns beyond harm, rights and justice.
David Buss Professor in the Psychology Department of the University Of Texas at Austin.
I believe in true love. The road of ordinary love are well travelled and their markers are well understood- the mesmerizing attraction, the ideational obsession, the sexual afterglow, the often profound self-sacrifice, the desire to combine DNA. But true love takes its own course, through unchartered territory. It knows no fences, has no barriers or boundaries. It’d difficult to define. Eludes modern measurement, seems scientifically woolly. But I know true love exists. I just can’t prove it.
Quotes taken from John
Brockman’s book entitled “What We Believe but Cannot Prove”.
Saturday, August 8
The Lion King 2 - He Lives In You
We are learning this song "He Lives in You" from the "Lion King" from a varied musical repertoire of the newly formed project to establish a local community choir.
Hence the "Open Door Singers Diamond Valley" is in the early formative stages but nevertheless the format and music in the first month has been enthusiastically adopted by locals. This is in no small part due to the expert direction of the accomplished singer and acclaimed choral conductor Shaun Islip.
Shaun is the Musical Director of the not for profit organisation "Open Door Singers" which aims to foster and grow community choirs. It seems very likely the "Open Door Singers Diamond Valley" will become a future reality as members elect to join.
The words to the song are as follows :
Ingonyama nengw' enamabala
Ingonyama nengw' enamabala
Ingonyama nengw' enamabala
Night and the spirit of life calling
Oh, oh, iyo, mamela
And the voice with the fear of a child answers
Iyo iyo, mamela
Oh, oh, iyo, mamela
And the voice with the fear of a child answers
Iyo iyo, mamela
Wait, there's no mountain too great
Hear these words and have faith
Oh, oh, iyo
Have faith
Hear these words and have faith
Oh, oh, iyo
Have faith
Hela hey mamela, hela hey mamela
Hela hey mamela, hela hey mamela
Hela hey mamela, hela hey mamela
He lives in you, he lives in me
He watches over everything we see
Into the waters, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
He watches over everything we see
Into the waters, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
Dream, and the voice in the wind whispers
Iyo mamela
Iyo mamela
Wait, there's no mountain too great
Hear these words and have faith, oh, oh, iyo
Hear these words and have faith, oh, oh, iyo
He lives in you, he lives in me
He watches over everything we see
Into the waters, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
He watches over everything we see
Into the waters, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
Ingonyama nengw' enamabale
Ingonyama nengw' enamabale
Ingonyama nengw' enamabale
He lives in you, he lives in me
He watches over everything we see
Into the water, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
He watches over everything we see
Into the water, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives in you
He lives in you, oh yeah, he lives in me
He watches over everything we see
Into the water, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives, he lives, he lives, he lives in you
He lives, he lives, he lives in you
He watches over everything we see
He watches over everything we see
Into the water, into the truth
In your reflection, he lives, he lives, he lives, he lives in you
He lives, he lives, he lives in you
He watches over everything we see
Songwriters
Jay Rifkin;Mark Mancina;Lebo Morake
Jay Rifkin;Mark Mancina;Lebo Morake
Published by
WONDERLAND MUSIC COMPANY, INC.;WALT DISNEY MUSIC COMPANY
WONDERLAND MUSIC COMPANY, INC.;WALT DISNEY MUSIC COMPANY
Sunday, July 26
New earth and heaven
Greek Reporter spoke to a young Greek scientist that works in NASA to
get a better understanding of the potential
development for life beyond our planet.
Read more here should it be of interest
 |
Tuesday, July 21
How does a Christian differentiate himself from a Liberal Humanist?
Introduction
A growing number of people today
identify themselves as liberal humanists embracing an atheistic attitude to
life to find how people can live a good life together. That means they are atheists in the positive sense since they do not accuse theists for their belief. Liberal Humanist differentiate themselves from the Humanists of European cultural history such as Erasmus and Thomas Moor. They also refuse to align themselves to the various religious or literary humanist groups.
So simply put liberal humanism, for the purpose of this paper, is an atheistic attitude to life to find out how people can live a good life together. So the question is "How is the endeavour or practice of a Christian to live a good life different from that of a Humanist."?
This may sound an irrelevant
question, but it is an important one, as humanism becomes more wide spread. The
question arises what Christ told us which stands out from all other philosophies,
i.e. humanism. Of course, faith and the belief in an afterlife are
dominant themes but then we can ask how that affects “living a good life” and
how is this different to the philosophy of the humanist.
The problem in answering such a
question is that all the emphasis in Christianity centres on belief, which is
assumed will lead to better outcomes. But what I propose to do is to
examine the early roots of Christianity and their application in modernity to
ascertain significant differences to that of the liberal Humanist.
Christ behind the whitewash of Nicea in AD 325
The problem with elucidating what Christ intended for us as a way to live the good life possibly met its nemesis at Nicea in AD 325. Up until then that question was possibly much more of a hot debate until political consensus was achieved in Nicea. Up until that point there was evidence of flourishing and warring communities as evolving Christianity spread out into the world but not much is known by way of specifics as to how they embraced the teachings of Christ for everyday living.
At Nicea there was possibly well over 200 bishops in attendance at Constantine’s request for the express purpose of negotiating peace and unity amongst the then disparate groups of Christians. The result was the Nicean Creed and later on adoption of the books that make up the New Testament in 380AD.
Hence our view today of what Jesus
said is hidden in the politics and consensus selection that adopted certain
texts to be made available in the NT. Even so in the much earlier writings of
the apostle St Paul and those attributed to his followers, (which make up
nearly half of the New Testament) we have a good idea of how the first early
fledgling communities interpreted and applied Christs teaching to living the
good life.
Freedom to live life to the fullest
Paul remains an enigmatically unique
character – virtually unknown in a historical sense other than to be remembered
in Jewish disagreements amongst followers, but one who professes to be willing
to understand all things and become ‘as one’ to all men to further the cause of
being “in Christ” which arose from his mystical experience on the road to
Damascus. This factor has led many to interpret his work in a more complicated
manner than is needed, which I assess to be primarily devoted to championing a
freedom from the Jewish law and to shake off shackles of religious ritual. Although much has been made of the abstract nature of Pauline theology as a bridge from the more individualistic Judaism into Christianity (with the idea of justification by faith) I rather think the stronger case can be made his primary aim is to champion the new found freedom from the Jewish law.
Hence St Paul is of significant
interest to secular philosophers because his ideas carry with them the idea of
a universal unencumbered system of unity which presupposes through grace
existential philosophical aspects to life; to hold our life existence as
sacred, to ascertain and acknowledge ones gifts for the benefit of the whole
community, to joyfully exist in a state of grace without fear of death, to be
free and remain free from guilt, to share in all things and to place love and
affection ahead of all other known things.
These rather lofty ideals may be seen
also as the province of the humanist, who might argue that existential
philosophy does not require any of Paul’s preoccupation with the idea of “bring
in Christ” as being implied or necessary to be fulfilled.
The problem, of course, is that in
Paul’s communities, it is evident that many fell well short of achieving such
lofty ideas. But Paul also acknowledges our humanity and the imperfect cradle
of existence which will continue to see communities struggle to straddle the
idealism that is encapsulated in their new understanding and freedom from their
law only to fall prey to the usual earthly failings.Paul sends his letters of encouragement and hope in the expectation that the experience of freedom from the law will bring joy to existential living to transcend earthly suffering and sorrow. This possibly is the key difference to humanism in that the spark of Christs teaching as interpreted by Paul as in the “resurrected Christ” enables one to live to the fullest regardless of circumstance compared to just rational reasoning selected by the liberal humanists. It is hard to see how , being chained to just rational thought can sustain one during the more difficult periods of one life or ensure one continues to find meaning.
That might mean a form of surrender
of one’s reliance on the rational to a contemplative state of trust in
something bigger- the mystical union in Christ that is of comfort to many which
makes the good life more amenable.
The Gospels and parables as an
example of good living.In the synoptic gospels Jesus is mostly made known to us via the parables and entwined as a charismatic apocalyptic preacher in the story of his public ministry. Hence the ongoing theme is largely eschatological with continued references to a messianic kingdom yet to come. But what Jesus does leave us with is the idea of a universal ethic of love, some definitive ideas on living as described in the Sermon on the Mount and food for thought in regard to the parables, which continue to offer many different interpretative outcomes.
The key point of difference to the liberal humanist then is more to do with functionality as Christianity places more emphasis on contemplation and renewal in the spiritual sense from reading theses passages. Hence the Christian might be persuaded of the need to give expression to those surviving religious instincts which lie deep within us in contemplation of the parables and how best to be a server in the vineyard. In other words to give expression to vitality for life, both individually and collectively accepting we need not all be slaves within one ideology but to find comfort in the ideals of Christianity.
Acknowledging the prior input and review by my good friend Dr John Stuyfbergen who is an academic/lecturer at La Trobe University.
You can read his article on multiculturalism by clicking here http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=25577#.Va8ixPmqqkq
Monday, July 13
When a no vote to austerity actually means yes.
I noticed the Greek PM, who initially gave the impression
prior to the referendum he was willing to make some overtures to his lenders to
their austerity measures, has now moved to position where most, if not all of the prior
measures on that table are now accepted or are acceptable in a slightly
modified version. This news initially caused world stock markets to positively
move upwards in anticipation of a final settlement, only to wane as it now
appears a long way off.
As negotiations drag on the initial euphoria and misplaced satisfaction of a NO vote only highlights the underlying frustration with Greece. What this highlights as a consequence of months of fruitless talks, is an emerging lack of trust and a lack of reliability which makes compromise much more difficult.
In the current talks I understand the 2 largest creditor nations, namely Germany and France are taking different approaches. France is lobbying for Greece to stay in the Eurozone, whilst apparently Germany is proposing a temporary "Grexit" which might last up to 5 years.
Bear in mind if a settlement can finally be reached it will be Greece's third bailout in just five years. Its debt now stands at around 320 billion euros ($357 billion) – representing 180 percent of the country's annual GDP. This is clearly not sustainable.
The PM, it seems to me, gave the impression that a NO vote
would strengthen his hand and at the same time by making a few overtures gave voters
the distinct impression that creditors are being unreasonable and not
responding to his offers. The vote was not as close as most anticipated, but I
gather many, due to the wording, were not clear as to what they were actually
voting for. The only major austerity measure that is now off the table as far
as I can gather is a cut in defense spending. The other point in regard to a haircut
on Greek debt is still in the melting pot, but sooner or later it will have to
be considered.
There seems to be a great deal of confusion talked about
the position right from the outset. The continuing theme the European Creditors
are to blame for imposing austerity measures which resulted in Greece’s economy
contracting by about 25% is a popular theme talked about by economists. But the
reality is if you clock up debts to the extent of allowing run- away government
expenditure to result in a budget deficits of the order of 12% of GDP, most of
which was for consumption expenditure, you will in the aftermath risk severe
contraction bringing that back into equilibrium. That inevitably must cause a contraction in
any economy in the absence of offsetting stimulatory monetary policy, which in Greece’s
situation was long since exhausted as a Eurozone member. Furthermore, whether in modernity or way back to the times
when communities were more in tune with nature, some semblance of balance has
to be always maintained between continued sustainable available resources and those
consumed. The assertion by some economists that the Greek people have not
received or benefited from the continuing bailouts is another popular theme which
is at odds with reality.
If Greece had not been bailed out in the past their economy and
their people would have suffered far more, as the reintroduced drachma would have
devalued and ratchetted up inflation by 30-40% to reduce the countries
purchasing power. Benefits across the board would have to be cut and with rapid
inflation those provided would be severely devalued. Whilst some of the funds provided did end up as
financier’s remuneration the vast bulk of funds were as a consequence of prior consumption
expenditure exceeding tax revenues which was received one way or another in benefits
or services by the Greek people.
The idea put forward by another leading economist that the
economy would quickly recover in the event of a Greek exit , based on prior empirical studies,
to me seems fanciful. Rather I would suggest , this would involve a prolonged period
of poverty, particularly as the countries needs new investment not likely to be
forthcoming where there is little by way of viable industries or infrastructure other than tourism.
As negotiations drag on the initial euphoria and misplaced satisfaction of a NO vote only highlights the underlying frustration with Greece. What this highlights as a consequence of months of fruitless talks, is an emerging lack of trust and a lack of reliability which makes compromise much more difficult.
In the current talks I understand the 2 largest creditor nations, namely Germany and France are taking different approaches. France is lobbying for Greece to stay in the Eurozone, whilst apparently Germany is proposing a temporary "Grexit" which might last up to 5 years.
Bear in mind if a settlement can finally be reached it will be Greece's third bailout in just five years. Its debt now stands at around 320 billion euros ($357 billion) – representing 180 percent of the country's annual GDP. This is clearly not sustainable.
Wednesday, July 1
Greek tragedy unfolding
The
Greek tragedy is gaining in momentum as yet another milestone passed with an
official debt default and
ominous signs the government coffers are empty.
Their PM has bailed out of talks with the EU and IMF and called for a July 5th referendum, seeking to convince voters a no vote against the EU proposals will strengthen his hand in negotiating a better deal in exchange for additional bailout funds of 15.3 billion Euro. Unsurprisingly the referendum has not impressed the EU and initially spooked global markets as the fear of a Greek exit might lead to contagion to other weak links in the Euro zone and to banking collapses. A Greek default would cause Greek banks into bankruptcy and their losses would spill over and effect the solvency of European banks, particularly those located in Germany and France, who hold about over €34 billion in Greek debt. But this is dwarfed by the governments of the euro zone who are owed 184 billion.
Looking back
One might well ask how on earth Greece managed to reach reach such a precarious position and what role the EU had in failing to ensure to EU standards of performance were maintained.
In 2011 a Euro 190 billion from the stability fund was added to existing bailouts as Greece's debt to GDP rocketed to 175% of GDP.
Conclusion
Either way the future does not look bright, but if integrity is given a chance, there still is the possibility of compromise being reached. Personally I think a yes vote is what is needed and less brinkmanship and a more pragmatic approach to allow for some considerable debt forgiveness as part of an overall package is in the best interest of all parties.
Their PM has bailed out of talks with the EU and IMF and called for a July 5th referendum, seeking to convince voters a no vote against the EU proposals will strengthen his hand in negotiating a better deal in exchange for additional bailout funds of 15.3 billion Euro. Unsurprisingly the referendum has not impressed the EU and initially spooked global markets as the fear of a Greek exit might lead to contagion to other weak links in the Euro zone and to banking collapses. A Greek default would cause Greek banks into bankruptcy and their losses would spill over and effect the solvency of European banks, particularly those located in Germany and France, who hold about over €34 billion in Greek debt. But this is dwarfed by the governments of the euro zone who are owed 184 billion.
The Greek PM is banking upon this fear in this high
stakes game of brinkmanship, thinking the EU will cave in and accept less
austere measures than are currently demanded.
Although his view has
gained some traction I would not be surprised if a yes vote carries the day and
the current government is even ousted from office.
Moving outside the
Euro zone a small player such as Greece is hardly going to make any impact so that
my concern would be for the local citizens whose savings and capital would be decimated.
At the time of writing, the Greek banks are all closed
and citizens are restricted to €60 to be taken out of an ATM at any one time. Whilst
emergency services are exempt as time runs on stocking and purchasing of goods will
become more difficult to further impact upon this beleaguered economy.
Bare in mind the Greek banks
were only currently able to operate because of ECB support amounting to cash
injections of 100 billion Euro. Now that Greece has defaulted on its €1.5
billion payment to the IMF, the bailout program has come to an end.
The interesting point is 70% of Greek citizens want
to remain in the Eurozone but only a smidge over 50% want to stay if it involves
accepting the current austerity package on offer. I think one could argue the
country would be better off accepting the current package and press on with
negotiation for some form of debt forgiveness in the longer term in relation to
the $320 billion owing. It is becoming increasingly obvious Greece is never
going to be able to repay the debt or even afford the interest bill and some
form of debt haircut will have to be negotiated for it to remain as a viable
member.
Looking back
One might well ask how on earth Greece managed to reach reach such a precarious position and what role the EU had in failing to ensure to EU standards of performance were maintained.
Greece has suffered from very
poor governance stretching back many years where tax seems to have become an
optional extra.
But the seeds of this tragedy
had its nemesis in 2001, when Greece first adopted the Euro as its currency. The
beginning could not have had a less auspicious start as it initially was predicated
on hiding the excessive Greek debt levels to gain entry to the Euro Zone. The authorities entered
into a complicated transaction with the help of Goldman Sachs, which, according
to Bloomberg swapped debt issued by Greece in dollars and yen for euros using a
historical exchange rate, which implied a reduction in debt.
Upon entry to the Euro zone Greece then took
advantage of much lower interest rates and undertook extensive borrowing and investment
so that its debt continued to rapidly rise, to continue to operate well outside
its obligations under the Maastrict Criteria. Greece later confirmed it had not
been initially truthful, about the extent of its borrowings, but the EU decided
it must defend its member nation to ensure she did not default or leave the
Eurozone. Furthermore as both France and Germany were also spending above the
limit it was felt it would be unfair to impose sanctions on Greece so the EU opted
to allow the nation time to implement their own austerity measures.
The extent of the black hole became clearly visible
in 2009 when Greece’s budget deficit stood at 12.9% of GDP, against a maximum
of 3% allowed under the treaty. In response Greece announced an austerity
package designed to ensure deficit were reduced to 3% of GDP in just two years.
Subsequently the EU and IMF provided €240 billion in emergency funds to facilitate
support as the nation made the transition to be self-sufficient.
But at this stage the austerity measures began to
bite with evidence of widespread civil unrest and pockets of rioting in the
streets as the economy slowed and unemployment ratcheted up to 25%. In 2011 a Euro 190 billion from the stability fund was added to existing bailouts as Greece's debt to GDP rocketed to 175% of GDP.
The position was dire but some relief was granted
as Bondholders finally agreed to debt forgiveness by exchanging $77 billion in
bonds for a debt now worth 75% less.
Since then Greece has made some progress in
reducing the size of budget deficits but not the amount it owes.
Conclusion
Either way the future does not look bright, but if integrity is given a chance, there still is the possibility of compromise being reached. Personally I think a yes vote is what is needed and less brinkmanship and a more pragmatic approach to allow for some considerable debt forgiveness as part of an overall package is in the best interest of all parties.
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