These pictures are close to where we live which is green and lush from all the rain. This year the dams are almost full and wherever you cast your eye you see a lush green velvet complemented by flowering yellow wattle. Click on each to enlarge to see much more !!
There is nothing new in the latest statistics coming out of the USA over the last month or so nor does Standard & Poor’s decision last Friday to strip the U.S. of its AAA credit rating for the first time alter much how US debt will be viewed. Nevertheless the move compounded fears around the globe including Australia which saw one of the worst slumps in share prices seen since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and severe volatility is likely to continue with further massive losses to continue.Currently a high degree of skepticism exists in relation to rating agencies generally given their abysmal performance prior to the GFC but this did not stop investors dumping stock in what could be described as severe panic selling. The move has helped cement a previous wall of worry about European debt worries and add weight to the fears another double dip recession will occur.
But strangely enough in currency markets there has been if anything a return to favour to the US dollar which caused the Aussie to be dumped. Hence money parked conveniently in equities in Austrlia has been realised in aggressive selling which has unnerved many long terms investors unable to comprehend the reason behind this sell off at depressed prices. Once again we have the spectacle of manipulation by Hedge funds and speculators which is not helpful to long term stability.
Aggregate debt levels in the USA have not fallen despite massive deleveraging by the private sector
Although householders in the USA have reduced their liabilities to disposable incomes from 130% to 112% since the GFC this still compares unfavorably to long term median averages below 70 %, as the loss in equity in falling house prices and continuing defaults leave many in distress. There remains a downward pressure on house prices which hopefully will soon stabilize as supply and demand come into equilibrium by the end of the year or maybe in the first half of the next year. There was a mild pick up in housing construction which gives some ray of hope that the worst of the oversupply in housing stocks may be nearing an end. Furthermore Corporations have reduced their debts and many have recapitalized to ensure much stronger Balance Sheets. But demand in a weak economy is still insufficient for any marked pick up in hiring sufficient to reduce the current high levels of unemployment. Hence the depressing prospect remains that many disenchanted well qualified workers are unable to secure positions. All of this adds up to a continuation of substantial deleveraging which would have resulted in a sizeable reduction to the overall debt but has been offset by huge budget deficits. So overall there is not much difference in the overall level of total debt since the global financial crisis.
Is the downgrading in debt justified and what is the effect of deleveraging in a weak economy?
I think the downgrade for government debt by Standard &Poor’s can only be justified on the basis of concern that the political will does not seem to exist to rationally determine a sensible future policy. But in reality treasuries seem unaffected and intially even ralled (a rally increases the face value of those securities which in turn reduces the interest yield) so that it is almost a non event as investors remain unconcerned. The flood of equity sales into treasuries will augment this outcome even though it does not make a lot of sense to me - but then markets are not rational in the short term but driven by sentiment rather than logic. Only in the longer term when things settle down will fair values emerge.Hence I do think the reaction globally is clearly overdone. It is of course of historic interest and concern but I for one remain ambivalent to the machinations within just one agency that prompted this call.
However I do think they have a point about the poor response to the debt crisis by politicians. In an economy that only collects about 15% in tax revenues from GDP and spends 25% to make up a deficit of 10% the opportunity to formulate a sensible compromise seems fairly straightforward.
A combination of much needed fiscal reform ultimately leading to a higher rate of tax for those who can afford it (and who incidentally history tells us are not going to suddenly stop spending) with sensible long term spending curtailment seems rather obvious.
An inconvenient economic truth
The reality is that deleveraging still has a long way to go before sustainable debt levels can eventually be secured. History tells us that emerging from a financial crisis takes much longer that the recovery from a recession. The effects of a financial crisis and that of the size last experienced can last up to a decade before normality returns in terms of unemployment and so forth. Hence any sudden measures implemented to further underpin reductions in public debt risks sending another shock wave into the economy. It is hard to see anything other than continued low or anemic growth patterns for a number of years but this is far preferable to a recession.
The so called green shoots that appeared previously will reappear but they will not signal a strong sustained growth but rather a slow sector improvement ( house construction possibly soon to recover)whose pace nevertheless will be restrained by the effects of deleveraging of debt curtailing the supply of private credit. Presently you have a double whammy of both private and public debt remaining well over long term averages and sustainable levels. Growth for the past several decades was fueled by excessive credit growth and when you go unto reverse naturally enough you lose that momentum. The devaluation of the dollar does make exports more competitive but this sector is too small to offset the much larger domestic contraction.
Policy settings & Conclusion
Policy in my view requires a measured approach to bring about gradual reductions in both the private and public sector debt coupled with moves to engender confidence combined with improved corporate governance to help quell the fears of another recession.
Another vital point that does not seem to warrant much discussion is that given the massive deleveraging that must occur we are only at best beginning this cycle and need to be mindful of the effect of adding too much too soon to the current credit contraction.
Cutting back drastically on government spending to balance the budget in the short term will almost certainly plunge the country into a severe recession. Curtailing future benefits can undermine confidence - particularly if numbers are thrown around as if they were hurriedly written down on the back of an envelope.
Nevertheless desite al of this and deleveraging in the private sector many firms are capable of producing good returns and,for the most part corporates have been involved in recapitalization as was previously mentioned. Hence we may eventually see a strong rebound in stock markets but this will not be a signal the economy is about to take off. Rather firms my still be able to offer good returns but many will reamain restrained by the debt overhang.
It’s no time for politics at this time in history yet politics and extreme ideologies currently rule the roost.
If you would like read a more comprehensive view on deleveraging after a global financial crisis from the Economist click here.
Click here for a video on the island atols of Kiribati which we visited in the mid nineties and where we stayed at Tarawa and Abiang. The graphic footage clearly indicates the effects of climate change and risks to their water supply.
The amount of misinformation/ lack of attention to detail today in the press are quite staggering.
Recently as a consequence of hysteria concerning the economic state of Italy I downloaded their latest national accounts to try and find out what all the fuss is about.
The answer was quite startling- nothing has changed much at all in the last year and from my reckoning Italy is nowhere near the dire straits pointed out in the press. But of course there is another agenda underway and it has nothing to do with reality-but instead relates to making money on bets by large hedge funds for the benefit of the few.
Banning short selling and borrowing shares would help as would decisive leadership in the Euro zone.
Anyway at least I got my message published in one of the more respectable and informed on-line newspapers ( Scrambling for Europe's debt exit of July 12) which is as follows :
There is nothing new in the situation in ltaly and the latest GDP figures for the Italian economy point to moderate GDP growth, contained inflation and debt levels slightly up on a year ago. I think the Euro zone needs to be much more assertive and start publishing aggregated figures for the whole zone which I think would help quell the fear and despair. Hedge funds trading in bonds and loans are simply increasing their bets that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will spread. Of course, we also now have the rating agencies that gave AAA rating to the subprime junk bonds trying to make amends by downgrading sovereign debt. Previously they were far too generous. If not completely reckless they now risk overstating the case to act as a catalyst for selling/shorting, and in some case the failure to 'roll-over' investments in sovereign debt. Who are they actually working for at the moment? European debt needs to be restructured in an orderly fashion (call it a default if you will) to demonstrate the Euro zone has ample resources to bail it out Greece and any other struggling countries. But in the process of clearing the decks (which could be achieved in a matter of months) it's important the bond holders either take a haircut or agree to a repayment extension which is richly deserved. The share market’s reaction is clearly overdone since countries unlike companies don't go into liquidation and aren't sold to someone else. The contagion is only spreading because of the indecision by the Euro zone, the operation of the hedge funds and the undue influence of the rating agencies creating an overblown reaction. Investors are again being spooked by the action of the few who stand to make a killing.
Greece & the way ahead. Everyone knows Greece is incapable of repaying its debts and any further austerity measures will only make the position much worse. To my way of thinking there is no question that stronger creditor nations in the eurozone have an obligation (if they want to remain part of the eurozone) to bail her out by underwriting / issuing new bonds. Since the current bonds are trading at about 50% discount a refinancing through a European issuance would not be too expensive and is well within their collective resources ( Staring down Europe's debt divide, July 19). A sensibly determined aftermath would establish criteria so that the Greek government may not be able to borrow in the near future until such time as fiscal stability is established and the country is on a sustainable footing. Contagion will only spread if the euorozone does not take responsibility for that which they created in the first place. This current indecision and wringing of hands reminds me of someone in charge of credit control saying they can't be held responsible for either collecting all the book debts or establishing a scheme of arrangement which is in the best interests of their employer.
The pictures in the clip is of the school children in Malawi and the opening ceremony for the new church where children were being confirmed which I attended when I was last in Malawi. You can hear their joyful singing later on in the clip. This clip was shown to supplement a talk given with another member of the Malawi Support group to our local school children preparing for their communion. At the end of the talks we handed out paper for the students to draw a picture about life in Malawi and the best 3 pictures are to receive prizes.
We were delighted with the large number of questions afterwards combined with obvious enthusiasm and courteous attention by all of the boys and girls. A few points to the talk are as follows:
Ntandire compared to here Our school here is about the same size as the catholic school that we support in Malawi depicted in the clip- the pictures show children at school. The teachers there spend time each morning making breakfast for all the scholchdren; a mixture of maize soy and sugar to ensure nobody is hungry. As you can see in the clip they have similar classrooms but not the facilities. When the students go home it might be to a small house or village with huts made of mud brick with thatched roofs.
Early beginnings over 30 years ago
From inception the best way to help was thought to find people willing to become leaders of communities, to help in the building of churches schools and communities. Earlier on the current priest was hijacked and shot on his way back to the airport and only just survived this attack. When that happened he felt a peaceful spirit wash over telling him that everything would be okay and that feeling of fearlessness has never left him. Today 47 communities have blossomed under his stewardship.
Today these 47 communities covering 12 000 parishioners all help one another. Each has chairmen, a secretary and treasurer and many have constructed small properties which they can rent out to provide a pool of funds to help people in need. Each community takes responsibility for their people to ensure every person keeps their own medical records so that if they need to go to hospital they will have record of prior treatment. You can see their joy in the video of the church opening at Ntandire. Last year the first lady (wife of the president) visited this area and was impressed with the community spirit and all of the work being undertaken.
Malawi is the warm heart of Africa Malawi is often known as the warm heart of Africa because the people are very warm and friendly and I did not encounter a single rude Malawian the whole time that was over there. Most Malawians live with their extended families in huts grouped together in villages. A spirit of neighborliness’ and sharing dominate their existence.
The support group has helped these communities over the past 10 years in number of different ways: to renew two churches, build accommodation for AIDS sufferers, erect classroom shelters, electrify school buildings, build a security wall, provide funds for seeds and fund the church at Ntandire. More recently we are providing sustenance for all of the schoolchildren, scholarships for education and school fees for those who canot afford them
The community at Ntandire has just finished building a kitchen in the nursery school from a gift of ceramic stoves which cuts down on the wood used by more than 50%. .The woman there started the nursery school with over 100 children who are also fed 3 times a week and take turns to teach and cook on a voluntary basis. The school fees project we fund and the funding of the children for both places are going very well and we look forward to seeing even more new leaders emerge. Soon will come the time when we see the last of the missionaries needed as these vibrant communities become self sufficient. That day is fast approaching. Whilst in Africa I listened to many people’s stories, including that of a grandmother, whose experience was typical of many in their community in terms of church, faith and children. It wasn’t until later that I learned that her husband had died the previous year from HIV/AIDS. She was also infected and acknowledged her past sorrow, but lived a joyful existence. She had let go of her physical suffering and, by focusing on the spiritual, transcended her past sorrow for present joy. While we have great concern for her and the many others, including orphans, who carry a heavy burden through no fault of their own, their joyful spirits, unimpeded by the severe material hardships they endure, remain a true testament to their faith
Snapshot of Malawi
Malawi, situated in southeastern Africa has a population of nearly 15 million and was first a British protectorate of Nyasaland in 1891 and became independent n 1964. The current President Mutharika won a second term in 2009 and has helped the country progress with agricultural reform with assistance in fertilizers and better methods for farming. The country borders Mozambique Tanzia and Zambia and is one of least developed countries in the world heavily dependent on agriculture with about 90% of the population living in rural areas Malawi's climate is tropical with a rainy season from November to April. The country is dominated by Lake Malawi which drains into the Zambezi river through the Shire River. The May 2009 presidential and parliamentary elections were declared free and peaceful giving President Bingu wa Mutharika and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) a mandate for a second term of office. Women won 21% of the seats, increasing their representation by 50% from the 2004 to 2009 Parliament.
Special Equipment for Malawian Cooking The Malawian cooking methods are basic ones and you don’t need any special equipment to cook any of the dishes in the Malawi cuisine. Your everyday cooking pots and pans are enough to cook a complete Malawian meal. However, if you want a true Malawian food experience, you should know that cooking is still done the traditional way in Malawi. In the vast majority of Malawian homes, food is cooked over a wood fire using a tripod made of three supporting stones. Women (and children helpers) are responsible for everything concerning the food from market shopping to dish washing. As Nshima is eaten with the hands, everyone washes in a communal bowl before and after the meal. Many Malawians have mud stoves outside of the house, where they cook bread. St Kizito
Friday 3rd June was the feast day for st kizito - the boy martyr who was burned to death along with 25 others for failing to renounce his faith and submit to the King of Uganda back in 1886. Today his spirit lives on in the warm heart of Africa
Mansfield is a pleasant 2 hour drive from Melbourne located at the foot of the Great Dividing Range and surrounded by grazing land and mountainous forests. The township and surrounding districts bursts with historical buildings as it was a gold mining service centre during the 1850’s. We spent a day in the small picturesque town of Jamieson and to read a history of the historic buildings click here
Ever since I can remember, occasionally I have this weird imaginatitive concept of nothingness – the equivalent of nothing at all. This was not the negation of the idea of being as such but that which is apart from it.
Those thoughts remind me of our ancestral past journey when we first began to to think about ourselves separate to self. Modern man evolved this potential possibly up to 100,000 years ago although scholars hotly debate varying time lines. It is highly plausible during this crossover period as our cognitive abilities expanded physically (with the expansion of the frontal brain lobes) many of our beliefs began to took take shape. In Elkhonon Goldberg's ‘ The Executive Brain’ he states "A rich sensory memory of a deceased tribesperson would be interpreted as the tribesman's "ghost" or as evidence of the tribesman "life" after death". According to the scenario, some of the more literal religions and magical beliefs, which persisted for millennia are vestiges of early human’s inability to distinguish between one’s own memories of other people (internal representations, parts of "self") and those actual people themselves ("nonselves".Others). According to Jaynes, this self-oneself confusion was not confined to prehistoric times. It extended well into the early history populated by individuals we assume to be neurobiological "modern'.
Looking backwards in time it is difficult to imagine those first awakenings in our journey of discovery since they are hidden in oral history, dance, chants and the evocative dreamland scenes on rock walls painted up to 60,000 years ago. Even today screenings include a warning about interviews with people who have since deceased in deference to indigenous group’s beliefs. An insatiable curiosity combined with unquenchable thirst for knowledge leads to our complex ever changing belief systems which adapt subtly along with hotly contested changes as new discoveries contradict many of the rigidly held previous religious ‘beliefs’. Many today prefer the idea of concepts rather than to be wedded to a ‘belief system’.
Buddhism has been rediscovered in the west and gains popularity as an alternative to secular materialism in philosophy or fundamentalism in religion. The idea of nothingness as sacred might seem unattractive to western rationalism unaccustomed to discussing such subjects as emptiness, karma, release from suffering through Nirvana – by ceasing to will, illusions of the mind and the idea of death simply taking on a different form of rebirth. Buddhist popularity may also be due to the fact it seems to be less authoritarian and, while its rationality may be debated it does suggest a rational pathway.
However, when one examines the mystical bent of all religions and their roots encapsulated into ritual, art and so called canonized scripture it remains a matter of choice dependent in turn on a leap in faith.
In the end people adopt a religion or a belief or a particular religious or even secular philosophy because there is nothing else you can do to make sense of life - philosophically for that person.
From the mystical perspective nothingness or something -whichever is of appeal, always entails something in reality which is ineffable.
The only thing we can say for sure is it is futile and idiotic to attack anyone purely on the basis of what a person or group of people think or happens to believe (as distinct from what someone does) since it is all about something or nothing which in reality is ineffable. Much to do about nothing- but we see continued oppression and persecution of many ( including christian) based upon a fear of what such people might do.
This recording ‘Bailero’ from the ‘Chants d'Auvergne’ (‘Songs from the Auvergne"); is one from a collection of folk songs from the Auvergne region of France arranged by Joseph Cantaloupe for the soprano voice and orchestra between 1923-1930. These songs are sung in the local language, Occitan.
Cantaloupe travelled throughout France to collect folk songs, making arrangements for voice and instrumental accompaniment. Without his painstaking work these simple folk songs which were orally passed down from one generation of shepherds to the next would have been lost forever.
Cantaloupe leaves us an enduring legacy of the most exqustively beautiful simple music ever written. The music blends beautifully with the majestic scenery of this high plateau area in southern France with expanses of green rolling hills stretching out as far as the eye can see and richly carpeted in wildflowers which echos the lyrics of skylarks.
It is worth waiting for theses few pictures in the clip to glimpse the magificient scenery and imagine the dulcet tones of a maiden to a shepherd across the river : ‘Are you having much fun’? ‘None at all, and you’? Shepherd the meadow is in flower, come over here to tend your flock? The grass is greener in my field. Shepherd the river runs between us. I can’t get across! Then I’ll come across and fetch you
Click here for the clip - this recordng is as fantastic for me as was when I first heard it many years ago sung then by rising star Jessye Norman !!
Whenever I am near a farm or in the country I experience a calm that comes over me like a gentle breeze. The sounds of country life instantly tells me to slow down and relax. It is hard to put my finger on it but I think it has something to do with the changing seasons; the hum of activity that sets its own pace and laughs at you if you foolishly try to impose your own will. From my childhood memories comes the idea there was a certain patience needed to taste the sweetness of fresh mulberries picked just as the fruit ripens. One felt secure in the daily routine of a baker bringing his freshly baked bread or a milkman filling your milk jug from milk from a farm up the road. There was a certain thrill of picking out only the edible wild mushrooms for our family breakfast.
I remain interested in farming and have watched the growth in ‘Land Care’ as farming properties join together to create interlocking corridors of preserved natural bush covenanted to nature. These large tracts of covenanted land set aside as a ‘trust for nature’ ensures the indigenous species can continue to flourish. These areas cover up to 15% or more of each property and not only preserve the environment in perpetuity but also provide superior farm yields.
Most Farmers who are involved with animals reared for the ultimate purposes of human consumption are at considerable pains to ensure their animal’s environment and relative freedom ensures enjoyment up to the time of any slaughtering. When that time arrives it needs to be carried out in a swift and humane to avoid suffering or stress on the animals concerned. There is no reason to sustain suffering of animals today. Factory farming (which , for the most part is not widespread in Australia) where animals are housed in restricted space and force fed a unnatural high growth diet tell us something very negative about society verging on moral bankruptcy. Fortunately in many countries distributors are starting to label their product as free range and turning the tide for that preference amongst consumers.
It all boils down to the point any prolonged suffering of animals is unacceptable today regardless of past tradition or culture or anything else. Either we take some responsibility for what we eat and how it is produced or we turn a blind eye to it or argue against it on the basis of animal’s existence is not of any consequence when it comes to human existence. Such as argument to my mind is morally indefensible. It also follows that those involved in any form of farming in the wild owe a responsibility not to engage in practices that result in slow agonizing death to animals.
Anyone witnessing the cruelty of commercial whaling would be horrified at the spectacle of the slow and agonising death of a harpooned whale. At least now in the Soutern Ocean ther whales have gained some respite ........'It’s official – the Japanese whaling fleet has called it quits in the Southern Ocean, at least for this season. And if they return next season, Sea Shepherd Conservation Society state they will be ready to resume their efforts to obstruct and disable illegal Japanese whaling operations. ' To read more click here
The federal government has refused to be drawn on the tenor of a meeting between the Japanese foreign minister and Australia's ambassador in Tokyo following a premature end to the whaling season. Japan announced on Friday it was bringing home its harpoon ships a month early for safety reasons following a series of clashes with anti-whaling activists. ........read more here
