Letters to the editor

These letters were published in the Australian Financial Review which is Australia’s leading national business paper with a weekday circulation of around 237, 000 and 153, 000 for the weekend edition.

Harvey’s groans still make a case

In “Please stop whingeing, Gerry Harvey’’ (Letters. January 12) I note Kieran Kelly avoids mentioning the one salient point that Gerry Harvey and Dick Smith attempt to make.

Simply put, overseas purchases by Australian consumers from internet sites owned and operated outside Australia avoid paying GST on purchases under $1000.

The growth in on line sales from these sites enjoying this cost advantage has nothing to do with innovation or changing modes of business or anything else but is due to this tax cost advantage.

Australians will and do purchase electronic goods, or any for that matter, when they are cheaper offshore. This year the government will collect hundreds of millions of dollars less in GST as a result of consumers sourcing goods from overseas which are not subject to GST. This means less tax is available for schools roads and heath. Retailers can, of course, set up their own on line shopping, but will be uncompetitive as they are subject to GST and import levies.

Baillieu’s Work Cover grab

James McKenzie’, chairmen of the Transport Accident Commission and Victorian Work Cover Authority, reaches the inescapable conclusion that a state government’s decision to impose a dividend on the workers compensation and work safe authorities is akin to simply another tax on employers. (“Baillieu raid threatens Work Safe’s full funding", Opinion. February 28).

The Baillieu government has taken just this course in its move to take $471 million in additional diviends from the WorkCover Authority.
I can remember the previous mess for workers compensation in the state several decades earlier prior to the present reform when employers faced crippling premium rates as high as 8% of wages as a consequence of large payouts under common law underwritten by a number of private insurers. Fortunately today after much needed reform we now benefit from the lowest rates in Australia.

But as McKenzie correctly points out, these are now at risk if the government decides on a policy of dividend imposition which can only be recovered in increased premiums from employers.
Hiding behind this ideological bent to pay a dividend should be seen for what it is – an additional premium hike on employers for no reason other than to boost the Treasury coffers and give the appearance of good economic management.

Asia resilient on Indian demand

Stephen Wyatt’s gloomy assessment on commodities (“China props up shaky demand” (January 30) notes that while China remains the elelephant in the room, it is not the only game in town.

Wyatt fails to mention some of the supply restraints emerging or that other resilient markets such as India and those in our Asian region which can and are leading the way in a revival in construction projects whose increased demand for steel will lead to an increase, for instance, in iron ore consumption.

In fact India’s consumption of iron ore is rising at a time as it reverses its position from self sufficiency to one that is a major importer since the government took action against illegal miners.

Further supply constraints are arising from Brazil whose mines were recently affected by the very heavy rains.

Depressed levels in the Euro zone and the USA are unlikely to get much worse so that overall even if there was curtailment in China’s appetite, the slack may be offset by demand elsewhere combined with emerging supply restraints.

Resources Future Assured

Stephen Wyatt’s “Boom glory days drawing to a close” (Commodities observed February 23) continues his theme commodity prices beginning in 2013 will suffer severe falls and put pressure on the share prices of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals.

Forecasting one year ahead is difficult enough, but predicting a 50% reduction in iron ore price over the next three years, as Wyatt does , even when quoting commodity analysts, is implausible.

Wyatt fails to acknowledge that in India and China softer future steel making demand for construction (and hence iron ore demand) may be more than offset by robust growth in the consumption-related sectors such as machinery and transportation.

This is a natural progression for these developing economies fuelled by demand from a burgeoning middle class and echoes China’s latest five year plan.

China is aiming at reducing its reliance on exports and investment to be more reliant on local consumption to sustain its economy.

If there is going to be any slowing in demand in commodities than a more likely scenario is a gradual decline but anyone predicting further massive falls is foolhardy. The dynamism of developing economies and their ability to sustain demand for resources over the next several decades should not be underestimated.

Hewson’s bank bashing unfair

John Hewson’s “Greedy banks cry foul” (Opinion, February 3) is another example of bank bashing lacking substance. I am intrigued by his idea that banks operate in a privileged position as a virtual oligopoly and are greedy.

Bank returns for the four majors vary from around 13 % to 17 % on shareholders’ funds with the top notch going to the Commonwealth and each has a very distinctive customer base.

Many listed Australian icons easily exceed this return such as Telstra at 26%, Woolworths 28% and BHP 38%. Given the cost of Capital is 12% the banks average returns of 15% can hardly be viewed as excessive. In fact the Australian banking industry is extremely competitive as evidenced by the string of foreign banks that closed their local operations unable to realise commercial returns.

Thankfully we have a strong banking industry which did not succumb to the overtures by foreign banks to become engaged in the sub-prime securities and derivatives market which caused those banking giants in the USA and Europe to need huge publically funded bailouts to remain solvent.

The only reason banks have to seek wholesale funding overseas at higher interest rates is because their local depositor base here is insufficient. Hewson and the flurry of bank bashes only serve to undermine what is needed: a continuing strong healthy profitable competitive banking sector which is critical at a time when overseas credit markets remain constrained. Link

A Faraway Place

‘A Faraway Place’ is a poem by my wife and I quickly penned this poetic afterthought

Princess
Only a memory; not history- just thoughts
Latticed green landscape of her endless estate
The old genes return to inspire a memory
Needlework of her boundless homeland
What mastery does this poem reveal?
Echoes of a past princess in nature’s royal estate?
For although we as mere mortals must be
Can we not imagine a finer dust that lays dormant ?
To emerge in words and song

A Faraway Place
For years I’d longed to visit
Where Winston Graham wrote
In Poldark of Cornwall:
Bodmin, St Ives and Penzance.

A tale of smugglers, tin miners, gentry,
Intrigue, romance and greed
Where raging seas sculpt craggy cliffs
And Cornish Heath abounds.

There at last; much to explore
Where other feet have trod.
I’ll do my best to recount
Of happy times spent then.

First, L....r Farm; a dairy.
Bed and breakfast offered too.
It settled in a verdant vale
Quite difficult to locate.

Through blossoming, hedged lanes we drove
At last found the estate.
That picture postcard property
Was all that we had hoped.
The hostess was a little strange
When I asked her for an iron
She brought it, but not a board.
When asked about a place to dine,
“Don’t ask me”, was her shrugged reply.

The locals about were friendly.
One stopped to show the way
To the famous bronze age ‘Hurlers’,
High up upon the moor.

There, golden, gorse girt granite stones
Placed so long before
When ancients worshiped many Gods;
A picture perfect; Bodmin Moor.

Lazy days; see mare and foal
Share grazing ground with
Ewe and lamb and tourists who
Delight in nature’s spectacle on Bodmin Moor.

Beware the marshes and the bogs,
Beware large cats that roam;
A Puma? That was hard to cop!
Sightings listed at the Minions Village Shop.
Glimpsed a skeleton on the landscape
With a Tamer Valley view.
A monument or gravestone?
To wealth or exploitation?
To Tin!!

St Ives was such a busy place
The day that we were there.
Just couldn’t find a parking spot
By harbour or by sea.

It was a public holiday and the beach was crowded.
Traffic crawled through narrow streets
Past cottages so small and quaint
Once fishermen’s accommodation.

To visit the Tate Gallery;
One reason we had come.
But time grew short while tempers frayed.
Thought we’d come back another day.

Penzance though picturesque
Did little to impress me
But the nearby Minack Theatre;
An astonishing place to be.

The stage below, the sea beyond
The cliffside terraced to seat a crowd.
I’d have loved to sit beneath the stars
That night while the actors performed.

Alas the seats were all sold out
And the rain had begun to fall.
Though disappointed I was content
To rest and enjoy the view.

Moved on from Penzance to further climes
So much more to see
But Cornwall; it will always be
A beautiful memory. Link

River Walk

Crunch of gravel underfoot
Dust baked on a river’s track
Yellow tree spray on display
Shimmer in the river’s eddies

The wind brings a haunting rhyme
Resounding chords of a lost dreaming
When sky turned black, when rains came
it washed away the old bush track

Camped by the river, on the plain or in the scrub
Tribes still remember a great flood
As their mother earth rebounds.
Game is plentiful-they dance again
To the tune of the great hunt

Gone now like the first spring floods
Gone the nulla, the sling and the spear
Replaced by the gun
No longer,
No more. Link

A slower boat to China

It is only recently become apparent Chinese credit growth has far exceeded western economies during the past 3 years of the current global financial crisis.
China initially injected about $750 billion into municipal councils to thwart the effects of an initial savage downturn in exports which literally fell off a cliff in terms of reduced volume as a conseqence of the GFC.
This stimulus was earmarked for investment spending by municipal councils who augmented these funds with massive loans to invest in infrastructure projects and real estate development to the tune of trillions of dollars in additional credit.

This meant that 60% of the economy was being underwritten by unsustainable investment spending leading to both house prices and buildings ratcheting up in a huge bubble accompanied by marked increases in inflation.

The magnitude of this spending dwarfs the stimulus measures in the west and resulted in a huge buildup in government debt- that is rather a massive increase in municipal debt added to the much more modest 20% to GDP of the central bank indebtedness to total near 100% of GDP- similar to the central government debt in the USA. Victor Shih, a professor at Northwestern University who specializes in China warns that the country has only achieved its blistering GDP growth through massive leverage on a scale nobody currently appreciates. Here's what he wrote in an op-ed in WSJ Asia in regards to figure out the true level of provincial, local debt: To obtain an independent estimate, I collected data from thousands of sources, including regulatory filings, bond-rating reports and press releases of government-bank cooperative agreements. I estimate local investment entities' borrowing between 2004 and the end of 2009 totals some $1.6 trillion. The data are far from perfect because borrowing by low-level government entities and lending by small banks are difficult to track. Nonetheless, my evidence suggests that the scale of the problem is much larger than previous government estimates. At $1.6 trillion, the size of local debt is roughly one-third of China's 2009 GDP and 70% of its foreign-exchange reserves, To read the full article click here

The measures introduced by authorities to curtail the unsustainable bubble and curb inflation gave rise to fears of a crash or hard landing which was initially evidenced by a significant slowdown in imports (halving) and house prices falling 50%. Unsurprisingly this has given rise to pockets of social unrest and corruption out of this boom and bust cycle. Oddly enough as each piece of bad news filtered through to the west (as evidenced by falling prices and reduced demand) confidence grew that authorities would take action to avoid what otherwise might be a very hard nasty landing.

Hence the big questions remains will China be able to curtail this unsustainable investment growth as authorities aim for a soft landing to revert to a sustainable rate of growth or do we need to brace ourselves for a significant slowdown which will affect exporting countries such as Australia?

Anyone who thought that China was immune from the GFC or thought that authorities had a iron clad grip on what was going on need to think again. So we are bound now to see a future slower China with exports curtailed by a struggling Europe, by weak global demand and constrained by less capacity for internally based stimulus measures. Howewver, on a brighter note, once EU countries finally commit to improved budgeting to live within their means possibly in March this year the European Central Bank is likely to loosen the money supply and provide some respite to a recession for the region. This could not come too soon as European leaders have so far shown a marked reluctance to do anthing other tham tinker around the edges as their economies inevitably slide ionto recesion. The degree to which the recession bites, of course, the greater the impact on China as Europe is its biggest customer.

However in China the response by authorities recently has been to loosen the banking ratio reserve( funds banks must keep in reserve)and reduce official interest rates which were cut for the first time in 3-years, by 50 basis points ( Eg .50% ). A much more accommodating monetary policy was made possible by inflation reducing from 6.50% to just over 4% and further easing will no doubt continue this year.

The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, said on Wednesday that it will lower banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points for the first time in three years in order to replenish liquidity in the country's banking system as inflation eases.
The latest cut, effective on Dec. 5, drops the RRR to 21 percent for large commercial banks and 17.5 percent for mid- and small-sized banks. An estimated 396 billion yuan (62.38 billion U.S. dollars) in capital will be released into the market. Click here for the full article


Hence it will be a slower boat to China this year. But given the easing in monetary policy and with more to come I think it may still revert to a fair rate of knots- maybe in the order of a growth rate of 7.5- 8% compared to the unsustinable double digits of the past.

The reality is however that because of the buildup in debt China does not have the capacity to further stimulate the economy as it did just a few short years ago. It is not all plain sailing and the policy options remain constrained.

PS China’s economy probably grew the least in 10 quarters in the last three months of 2011 and may cool further as export demand slumps and officials prolong a campaign against property bubbles.

Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose 8.7 percent from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the second quarter of 2009, according to the median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The data, and indicators for investment, retail sales and industrial production, are scheduled for release tomorrow in Beijing.

The fourth straight quarterly slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy adds to concerns that global expansion is faltering, with the International Monetary Fund warning of near- zero growth in Europe and a “substantial” cut to its global forecast. China’s exports rose the least in two years in December and inflation eased to a 15-month low, bolstering the case for Premier Wen Jiabao to loosen policies.

“The worst is yet to come and more easing measures will be in the pipeline in coming months,” said Zhang Zhiwei, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc., who previously worked at the IMF. “Increasing downside risks in China will hurt the outlook for other economies especially commodities exporters such as Australia and Brazil.”

Growth may “trough” at 7.5 percent in the three months through March and 7.6 percent in the second quarter, Zhang said. That may prompt the central bank to “front-load” policy easing into the first half, with one interest-rate cut in March and three reductions to banks’ reserve requirement ratios, he said. Read more by clicking here Link

What I believe but can’t really prove:

Just for interests sake I thought I would list what I believe but can’t really prove:
1. Natural selection governs the evolutionary nature of all things to determine their existential status subject to continual and repeated creations.
2. Within this creation exists awareness which acknowledges a superior force or energy which must, by logical necessity, exceed what could be imagined as separate to self. This is the root of all religions and their beliefs.
3. The perceived order of the known universe gives rise to universal laws that mimic grand design even though at the smallest level particles defy these laws and at the outer extremities they break down. So that one can say at the most basic level life remains an ever deepening mystery.
4. All things are dependant and co exist with another and the environment and universe is a product of those entities that inhabit that space.
5. A void is only a void to the extent we are not aware of what makes up that space.
6. Freewill only exists as causality in decisions at the time as opposed to our unknown future about which we might say is more to do with our fate than our choice.
7. Ultimately all that exists can reduce to pure energy of one kind or another.
8. When we die or body dies but we pass on to another form of energy. Link

Your money or your life; your life or Australia?

Patrick Byrnes- highway robber, convict & cedar getter
Guest blog post by Rachael Byrnes.

“They were a strange and wild set... of desperate ruffians .They are certainly the most improvident men of the world” (John Henderson, Pastoralist, 1840s).

As I read the above quote about the cedar cutters of the Nambucca region in the 1840s, I can’t help but think that it could easily be a description of me: a wild ruffian living hand to mouth!! Perhaps that’s going a little too far, but knowing that this small community was home to my great great great great grandfather, I can’t help but wonder... is there a little bit of Patrick Byrnes in me?

My name is Rachael Byrnes, my father, your usual blogger here, is Lindsay Byrnes and his great great great grandfather was a Patrick Byrnes; a highway robber, convict, cedar getter and tavern owner. Boy! Is that a tough infamous bill to live up too!? I can’t claim to be a cunning thief or frontier opportunist but as I read Norma Townsend’s book Valley of the Crooked River, I am amused by little clues that provide some insight into who I am and why.

Patrick Byrnes, a brief background
Patrick Byrnes was born in Tipperary, Ireland in 1816. He was convicted of highway robbery in 1836 and sentenced to death, a sentence then revoked in exchange for transportation to Australia. Patrick was just 20 years old when he was convicted of highway robbery. It is likely that he resorted to crime to survive as many poor and oppressed Irish of that era did.

Patrick was transported on the Captain Cook, and sailed for 187 days to reach Australian shores. After several years of convict labour he was granted a ticket of leave. There is no information about Patrick’s time as a convict but there is no doubt that it would have been a gruelling and unforgiving period of tough labour.

In 1848 Patrick married Emma Howell in Sydney before moving to the Nambucca region in northern NSW, an area rich in unexploited cedar wood. It is suggested in Norma Townsend’s book that Patrick and a friend by the name of James Cook moved to Nambucca, as part of a joint cedar getting plan. Howell’s family were also cedar cutters which may have provided extra incentive to move to this remote area.

Cedar wood was known as Red Gold as it was one of the most important Australian exports of the time. A dramatic rise in price in the 1850s made cedar getting, even in treacherous frontier areas like the Nambucca, more attractive.

Life on the Nambucca in the 1850s

Patrick, Emma and James were part of a third wave of cedar getters to the area. The early getters had left much of the cedar trees untouched and had not settled in the area. Poor access and laws preventing land selection left early cutters with no incentive to build communities along the Nambucca.

Even when Patrick, Emma and James arrived in the area, crown land was not available for sale and at best could only be held under pastoral lease. A timber licence permitted occupation of Crown land but none was held on the Nambucca until 1864. In the 1850’s economic development in the Nambucca was somewhat crippled. Sawyers lived from hand to mouth and dealers spent much of their profits outside of the valley. Most settlers, like Byrnes and Cook, eked out a precarious existence initially and struggled in the most primate conditions. There was little point, for example, in putting up but the most flimsy shelters or making any improvements without title to the land.

The history of European settlement during this period is somewhat lost in the mists of time but we can only imagine the struggles and hardships that men like Patrick would have endured deep in these wild subtropical rainforests.

“The scenes surpass all description. Men and women lying day and night on the bare grass in a state of intoxication and only recovering to renew their orgies” (Clement Hodgekinson, Pastoralist, 1840s)

Although the above quote, from a middle class pastoralist refers to a period just before Patricks arrival, growth in the area was very slow at first and so the culture would have remained much the same until the late 60s. Perhaps this is a biased and derogatory observation, yet we still muse over the wild drinking sessions that might have taken place.

Selecting and settling

In 1861 the Robertson Land Acts established in NSW allowed those with limited means to acquire land, with the stated intention of encouraging closer settlement and fairer allocation of land by allowing 'free selection before survey'.

Initially Patrick established his family at Boat Harbour, an isolated spot on Taylors Arm with its cedar untouched. In about 1864 he moved downstream and selected land near a ford on a sweeping bend of the river. He shrewdly chose his site; well watered, flat but not marshy, suitable for farming if cleared and ideally located close to established tracks and river transport. Patrick named his house and land “Congarena”. It was probably corrupted into, or was a corruption of “Congarinni”, said to be Aboriginal for “bog.” It’s strange then that his property was one of the least marshy of the area! Perhaps Patrick had a sense of humour or else the word did in fact mean something to him or the local aboriginal population.

After selecting his property, Patrick quickly established a successful store and pub called “The Shamrock Tavern” and ran a punt at the crossing. Not much is known about the pub or the small community that would have frequented it. Certainly, selection and growth in the area was slow with only seven selections in 1865, 20 in 1866 and 45 in 1867. Still this was enough to enable Patrick Byrnes to carve out a living and raise 12 children!

Personality and values – a peppery opportunist, protestant and catholic?

There are only small clues available about what Patrick Byrnes’ personality and values might have been like. We could easily “jump the gun” and suggest Patrick was an immoral man, committing crimes of terror against innocent highway travelers. However, if we consider the poverty and oppression that existed in Ireland the 1830s and how a large majority of the convicts sent to Australia were poor and illiterate, we can suggest that Patrick was simply a victim of circumstance. More than likely, he was part of a highway robbery gang that stole for survival or to access a lifestyle beyond backbreaking farm work and the common diet of potatoes and milk. Also, from the 17th through to the early 19th-century acts of robbery in Ireland were often part of a tradition of popular resistance to British colonial rule and settlement and protestant domination.

Perhaps Patrick was part of the last wave of resistance robbers, claiming loot as revenge. With a name like Patrick and the Gaelic surname Byrnes, Patrick was almost certainly born Catholic and the fierce tensions between Protestants and Catholics are well documented.

It’s interesting though that he then denied his Irish roots later in life. In Townsend’s book it’s noted that Patrick was “known as a peppery Irishman, he claimed to have been born in Rochdale Lancashire in 1820.” Perhaps it was religious tensions between his wife Emma Howell, who he married in the Church of England that led to this false claim. It’s interesting that Patrick and Emma were married protestant but some of their children baptized catholic. Were there ongoing religious tensions they could never fully resolve. Whilst Emma’s Protestantism prevailed for the marriage Patrick was buried a catholic in 1883. Perhaps religion wasn’t greatly important to them at all, happy to switch between denominations at their whims.

My bet is that Patrick lied about his origins for cultural and business advantages; to appeal to the sensibilities and judgmental middle class cedar buyers. In Townsend’s book it is noted that middle class observers thought poorly of ticket of leavers and the working class. Cedar cutters received the harshest of commentaries such as the extracts below from the Sydney Morning Herald

“The cedar grounds are the resort of the runaways and other bad characters who flock to these places where they are almost beyond the pale of the law...the scenes of infamy and vice that are to be witnessed there are ...horrible to contemplate” (Sydney Morning Herald, 1837)

Patrick may have concocted all kinds of embellishments for monetary gain or may have simply been embarrassed by his past. It’s interesting to note that most convicts granted a ticket of leave were still under legal observation and could have their ticket revoked if bad behavior was conducted. Perhaps this explains the incentive to move to such far off places as the Nambucca. Did Patrick want to be “beyond the pale of the law” ... simply to be free, to have a chance at making a better life for himself or did he find himself at home amongst the scenes of infamy. One can only guess!

There’s no doubt that Patrick was an opportunist willing to do what it took to carve out a lifestyle that was a step above wretched! Perhaps that meant lying, embellishing the truth, moving to remote places, dancing between catholic and protestant, making shrewd business decisions and being “peppery” if it got the job done.

It has been noted in Townsend’s book that Patrick Byrnes was perhaps a more ambitious and a more successful entrepreneur than his contemporaries. Emma and Patrick raised 12 children which were still considered a large family even for that era. Certainly it mustn’t have been easy both practically and financially to raise that number of children. He must have had his wits about him or else that Shamrock did bring him good fortune. Perhaps it was a little bit of both.

Patrick Byrnes lives

Without Patrick Byrnes, his highway robbery and cedar business, I myself would never have come to exist. Whilst it’s only one ancestor of many that make up my genetic code, I still wonder what pieces of Patrick Byrnes are in my genes today? Did I get my peppery tendencies from him? A keen interest in building my own business; of being self made? A desire to live in the middle of nowhere and try something new? Or did I simply inherit a few physical genes like dark hair and small features. As I write this I notice one of my recent gig posters. Rachael Byrnes with cedar wood guitar and shamrock emblem at the bottom for good luck. I can’t help but see the coincidence and wonder is the ghost of Patrick Byrnes leaving its mark? Link

Eltham in spring

 
 
 
 












































These pictures are close to where we live which is green and lush from all the rain. This year the dams are almost full and wherever you cast your eye you see a lush green velvet complemented by flowering yellow wattle. Click on each to enlarge to see much more !!

Link

An inconvenient economic truth

There is nothing new in the latest statistics coming out of the USA over the last month or so nor does Standard & Poor’s decision last Friday to strip the U.S. of its AAA credit rating for the first time alter much how US debt will be viewed. Nevertheless the move compounded fears around the globe including Australia which saw one of the worst slumps in share prices seen since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008 and severe volatility is likely to continue with further massive losses to continue.Currently a high degree of skepticism exists in relation to rating agencies generally given their abysmal performance prior to the GFC but this did not stop investors dumping stock in what could be described as severe panic selling. The move has helped cement a previous wall of worry about European debt worries and add weight to the fears another double dip recession will occur.

But strangely enough in currency markets there has been if anything a return to favour to the US dollar which caused the Aussie to be dumped. Hence money parked conveniently in equities in Austrlia has been realised in aggressive selling which has unnerved many long terms investors unable to comprehend the reason behind this sell off at depressed prices. Once again we have the spectacle of manipulation by Hedge funds and speculators which is not helpful to long term stability.

Aggregate debt levels in the USA have not fallen despite massive deleveraging by the private sector

Although householders in the USA have reduced their liabilities to disposable incomes from 130% to 112% since the GFC this still compares unfavorably to long term median averages below 70 %, as the loss in equity in falling house prices and continuing defaults leave many in distress. There remains a downward pressure on house prices which hopefully will soon stabilize as supply and demand come into equilibrium by the end of the year or maybe in the first half of the next year. There was a mild pick up in housing construction which gives some ray of hope that the worst of the oversupply in housing stocks may be nearing an end. Furthermore Corporations have reduced their debts and many have recapitalized to ensure much stronger Balance Sheets. But demand in a weak economy is still insufficient for any marked pick up in hiring sufficient to reduce the current high levels of unemployment. Hence the depressing prospect remains that many disenchanted well qualified workers are unable to secure positions. All of this adds up to a continuation of substantial deleveraging which would have resulted in a sizeable reduction to the overall debt but has been offset by huge budget deficits. So overall there is not much difference in the overall level of total debt since the global financial crisis.

Is the downgrading in debt justified and what is the effect of deleveraging in a weak economy?

I think the downgrade for government debt by Standard &Poor’s can only be justified on the basis of concern that the political will does not seem to exist to rationally determine a sensible future policy. But in reality treasuries seem unaffected and intially even ralled (a rally increases the face value of those securities which in turn reduces the interest yield) so that it is almost a non event as investors remain unconcerned. The flood of equity sales into treasuries will augment this outcome even though it does not make a lot of sense to me - but then markets are not rational in the short term but driven by sentiment rather than logic. Only in the longer term when things settle down will fair values emerge.Hence I do think the reaction globally is clearly overdone. It is of course of historic interest and concern but I for one remain ambivalent to the machinations within just one agency that prompted this call.

However I do think they have a point about the poor response to the debt crisis by politicians. In an economy that only collects about 15% in tax revenues from GDP and spends 25% to make up a deficit of 10% the opportunity to formulate a sensible compromise seems fairly straightforward.
A combination of much needed fiscal reform ultimately leading to a higher rate of tax for those who can afford it (and who incidentally history tells us are not going to suddenly stop spending) with sensible long term spending curtailment seems rather obvious.

An inconvenient economic truth


The reality is that deleveraging still has a long way to go before sustainable debt levels can eventually be secured. History tells us that emerging from a financial crisis takes much longer that the recovery from a recession. The effects of a financial crisis and that of the size last experienced can last up to a decade before normality returns in terms of unemployment and so forth. Hence any sudden measures implemented to further underpin reductions in public debt risks sending another shock wave into the economy. It is hard to see anything other than continued low or anemic growth patterns for a number of years but this is far preferable to a recession.

The so called green shoots that appeared previously will reappear but they will not signal a strong sustained growth but rather a slow sector improvement ( house construction possibly soon to recover)whose pace nevertheless will be restrained by the effects of deleveraging of debt curtailing the supply of private credit. Presently you have a double whammy of both private and public debt remaining well over long term averages and sustainable levels. Growth for the past several decades was fueled by excessive credit growth and when you go unto reverse naturally enough you lose that momentum. The devaluation of the dollar does make exports more competitive but this sector is too small to offset the much larger domestic contraction.

Policy settings & Conclusion

Policy in my view requires a measured approach to bring about gradual reductions in both the private and public sector debt coupled with moves to engender confidence combined with improved corporate governance to help quell the fears of another recession.

Another vital point that does not seem to warrant much discussion is that given the massive deleveraging that must occur we are only at best beginning this cycle and need to be mindful of the effect of adding too much too soon to the current credit contraction.

Cutting back drastically on government spending to balance the budget in the short term will almost certainly plunge the country into a severe recession. Curtailing future benefits can undermine confidence - particularly if numbers are thrown around as if they were hurriedly written down on the back of an envelope.

Nevertheless desite al of this and deleveraging in the private sector many firms are capable of producing good returns and,for the most part corporates have been involved in recapitalization as was previously mentioned. Hence we may eventually see a strong rebound in stock markets but this will not be a signal the economy is about to take off. Rather firms my still be able to offer good returns but many will reamain restrained by the debt overhang.
It’s no time for politics at this time in history yet politics and extreme ideologies currently rule the roost.

If you would like read a more comprehensive view on deleveraging after a global financial crisis from the Economist click here.
Link

Risks for Kiribati

Click here for a video on the island atols of Kiribati which we visited in the mid nineties and where we stayed at Tarawa and Abiang. The graphic footage clearly indicates the effects of climate change and risks to their water supply. Link

Europe’s debt crisis

The amount of misinformation/ lack of attention to detail today in the press are quite staggering.

Recently as a consequence of hysteria concerning the economic state of Italy I downloaded their latest national accounts to try and find out what all the fuss is about.

The answer was quite startling- nothing has changed much at all in the last year and from my reckoning Italy is nowhere near the dire straits pointed out in the press. But of course there is another agenda underway and it has nothing to do with reality-but instead relates to making money on bets by large hedge funds for the benefit of the few.

Banning short selling and borrowing shares would help as would decisive leadership in the Euro zone.

Anyway at least I got my message published in one of the more respectable and informed on-line newspapers ( Scrambling for Europe's debt exit of July 12) which is as follows :

There is nothing new in the situation in ltaly and the latest GDP figures for the Italian economy point to moderate GDP growth, contained inflation and debt levels slightly up on a year ago. I think the Euro zone needs to be much more assertive and start publishing aggregated figures for the whole zone which I think would help quell the fear and despair.
Hedge funds trading in bonds and loans are simply increasing their bets that Europe's sovereign-debt crisis will spread. Of course, we also now have the rating agencies that gave AAA rating to the subprime junk bonds trying to make amends by downgrading sovereign debt. Previously they were far too generous. If not completely reckless they now risk overstating the case to act as a catalyst for selling/shorting, and in some case the failure to 'roll-over' investments in sovereign debt. Who are they actually working for at the moment?
European debt needs to be restructured in an orderly fashion (call it a default if you will) to demonstrate the Euro zone has ample resources to bail it out Greece and any other struggling countries.
But in the process of clearing the decks (which could be achieved in a matter of months) it's important the bond holders either take a haircut or agree to a repayment extension which is richly deserved.
The share market’s reaction is clearly overdone since countries unlike companies don't go into liquidation and aren't sold to someone else.
The contagion is only spreading because of the indecision by the Euro zone, the operation of the hedge funds and the undue influence of the rating agencies creating an overblown reaction. Investors are again being spooked by the action of the few who stand to make a killing.

Greece & the way ahead.
Everyone knows Greece is incapable of repaying its debts and any further austerity measures will only make the position much worse. To my way of thinking there is no question that stronger creditor nations in the eurozone have an obligation (if they want to remain part of the eurozone) to bail her out by underwriting / issuing new bonds. Since the current bonds are trading at about 50% discount a refinancing through a European issuance would not be too expensive and is well within their collective resources ( Staring down Europe's debt divide, July 19).
A sensibly determined aftermath would establish criteria so that the Greek government may not be able to borrow in the near future until such time as fiscal stability is established and the country is on a sustainable footing.
Contagion will only spread if the euorozone does not take responsibility for that which they created in the first place. This current indecision and wringing of hands reminds me of someone in charge of credit control saying they can't be held responsible for either collecting all the book debts or establishing a scheme of arrangement which is in the best interests of their employer. Link