tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post3284923546255970763..comments2024-03-15T23:30:38.471+11:00Comments on Lindsay's Lobes: Greek tragedy unfolding Lindsay Byrneshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11030132436987752741noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post-1482403716360587142015-07-04T14:43:18.380+10:002015-07-04T14:43:18.380+10:00Hi Susan -thanks for your continuing interest and ...Hi Susan -thanks for your continuing interest and the reference which I read with great interest. All one can say for sure is there are many different perspectives as I alluded to in my previous comment, so that the unfolding Greek tragedy could easily fill up a rather large book if one wanted to cover all of the angles comprehensively. <br /><br />What I think one can say the united Eurozone was always a high risk concept and that nations like England may have been wise to refrain from joining. The problem is, once one country experiences a severe downturn, you don’t have the flexibility of an exchange rate devaluation to ride out the difficulty and the only option then is to revert to ongoing bailouts and to implement austerity measures to meet the rules. In other words you have this self-imposed straight jacket that risks making things worse as is the case for Greece. But other larger member countries in difficult circumstances, such as Spain, have implemented the dreaded measures more emphatically earlier on but also managed to trade out of their predicament and are now looking much stronger to remain critical of Greece. In fact this factor remains true for practically all of the member states who see things from the other side of the fence so to speak. If one was living in say in France or Germany for instance its possible one might have a very different perspective. <br /><br />But as I have said, under the Eurozone you do risk austerity measures making things worse, but bear in mind in relation to the Greek economy it was in bad shape even before they joined. Their debt to GDP went from 109% to 146% from 2008 to 2010, when their government debt was downgraded to junk, to mean the interest rates would have been horrendous without support and poverty ensued without the bailout funds provided at the time by European Commission, the European central bank and the IMF. Since that time Greece has made some headway in reducing its deficit but not its debt which has come at some considerable cost. <br />Hence I came to the conclusion some form of substantial debt forgiveness is the only way forward if she is to have any workable strategy of extraditing herself out of the current mess. <br />As you say the effect on the people will be terrible either way but I’m not sure you can make the case that at least voting no might allow some room for rebuilding their lives. You will need some form of ongoing support from other member nations to do that, since the government coffers are empty and who is going to invest in Greece if she does in fact beak way in the short term. How will pensions and other programs be paid in the short term ? <br />Best wishes <br /><br />Lindsay Byrneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11030132436987752741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post-73994730608305773072015-07-04T07:41:38.519+10:002015-07-04T07:41:38.519+10:00Hi again, Lindsay,
I've just read this article...Hi again, Lindsay,<br />I've just read <a href="http://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/chazen/globalinsights/node/300" rel="nofollow">this article</a> by Joseph Stiglitz about the situation in Greece and thought you might be interested in his summary.<br />I must admit I'm hoping for a 'no' vote. The effect on the people will be terrible either way but at least voting no might allow some room for rebuilding their lives.<br />Best wishessusanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16747450215034568033noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post-9977495840586911592015-07-02T11:26:32.020+10:002015-07-02T11:26:32.020+10:00Hi Susan & Tom
Thanks for your comments. I di...Hi Susan & Tom <br />Thanks for your comments. I did set out to present a more straightforward commentary and conclusion. I would agree in the early days many would have had no idea of the extent of the dire financial position and the ongoing treaty responsibilities. The extent to which others took advantage is also a factor as these guys seemed to think it was a rightful part of their inherited DNA to exercise clever deception in a highly sophisticated form of what was in effect stealing from the people. <br /><br />Hence I agree there are many threads left unexplored, such as a flawed political systems and so forth, which would have meant the post ran on considerably, so I elected to remain fairly basic in my analysis and summation. Thanks again for succinctly adding in these important factors. <br /><br />Best wishes <br />Lindsay Byrneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11030132436987752741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post-84170502939531699572015-07-02T07:21:12.168+10:002015-07-02T07:21:12.168+10:00I agree with Susan that this is a straightforward ... I agree with Susan that this is a straightforward account of the situation in Greece. I would suggest, however, that it is an incomplete analysis. That is to say that, understandably, certain threads have been ignored. Besides the dishonesty to which you refer, there is also the greed, both on the part of the Greek people who saw a chance to gain benefits without earning them, and on the other side their creditors who saw a way to make money (in some cases, lots of it) by investing in the Greeks monetary misery. <br /><br />What has also been highlighted is the weakness of the democratic system in which an electorate votes for mutually exclusive policies. (We don't want austerity, but we want your money.) Added to this is the apparent insistence on the part of the creditor bodies to impose conditions that run counter to those democratically voiced wishes of the Greek people. Greed and Ego make for a disastrous marriage. And on top of all that we have the Mediterranean migrant problem!Tomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09028121782477111901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9716997.post-45689467401635475722015-07-02T06:41:54.074+10:002015-07-02T06:41:54.074+10:00I've read a number of articles about the ongoi...I've read a number of articles about the ongoing situation in Greece, Lindsay, but yours is one of the most straightforward I've come across. What is so irksome about the whole process is that only a very few Greek people had any say at the beginning - and I'm sure most of the populace in general had no idea about their financially weak position regarding the country's obligations under the Maastrict Criteria. These things always get sold to people by those (like GS) who see profit for themselves. I've read the real unemployment rate in Greece among the young is at least 50% and many of them are surviving with the assistance of (already 40% reduced) pensions of their elders. I agree with you that the only reasonable solution at this point is debt forgiveness and overall compromise. susanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16747450215034568033noreply@blogger.com